2025 John Deere Classic betting tips: Who I’m bucking at TPC Deere Run

Resident tipster Tom Jacobs picks out his top John Deere Classic betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour event.

Previously called the Quad Cities Open, the John Deere Classic marks the final stateside stop before a big fortnight across the pond, starting with the Genesis Scottish Open, precursor to the season’s final major at Royal Portrush.

To help attract the strongest field possible, the tournament sponsors a charter flight from Quad Cities International Airport on Sunday night that arrives in Britain on Monday morning.

The tournament is renowned for its low scoring, with only three of the past 15 winners not finishing 20-under-par or below. American Davis Thompson registered his first PGA Tour victory last time around in spectacular fashion with a dominant four-stroke victory on 28-under par, the lowest 72-hole score in the tournament’s history.

Before diving into my John Deere Classic betting tips for the week, here’s everything else you need to know…

John Deere Classic key details

Venue: TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois (Par 71 – 7,289 yards)

Format: 72-hole strokeplay with 36-hole cut

Purse: $8.4m with the winner receiving an estimated $1.5m

FedEx Cup points: 500

Favorite: Ben Griffin 16/1

Defending champion: Davis Thompson (USA), -28

Most wins: D.A. Weibring (USA), Steve Stricker (USA); 3

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How to watch the John Deere Classic

US viewers can catch all the action on the Golf Channel.

All times EDT

Thursday, July 03: The Golf Channel, 16.00
Friday, July 04: The Golf Channel, 16.00
Saturday, July 05: The Golf Channel, 13.00
Sunday, July 06: The Golf Channel, 13.00

UK viewers can catch all the action on Sky Sports Golf.

All times BST

Thursday, July 03: Sky Sports Golf, 19.00
Friday, July 04: Sky Sports Golf, 19.00
Saturday, July 05: Sky Sports Golf, 17.00
Sunday, July 06: Sky Sports Golf, 17.00

John Deere Classic tee times

Tee times and groupings can be found here.

John Deere Classic betting tips

The Longshot: Karl Vilips 170/1 e/w (bet365 8 Places)

This is a punt on a high-potential player and not much else. Karl Vilips won earlier this season at the Puerto Rico Open, and while he has struggled since, his best finish after that has come at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he finished 11th. Given Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, and Kenny Perry have all won at both courses, Sean O’Hair has been 2nd at both, Grillo has won the Charles Schwab and finished 2nd here, and Sepp Straka has won here and finished 5th at Colonial, that looks like a good form line.

A cold putter prevented him from making the cut in Canada, and while it was a combination of bad putting and iron player at the Rocket Classic, I think taking a shot on Vilips in this field is worthwhile, given his early season win, and his performance at one of the very best correlating courses, alongside TPC Summerlin.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, a winner in his Rookie Season on the PGA Tour, and now Tiger Woods-owned Sun Day Red’s first ambassador, there’s clearly a lot of belief in this young talent.

I’ll take a shot that his spike week comes at an easy course that correlates well with the course he last played well at, while playing in a weaker field.

The Outsider: Kevin Roy 66/1 e/w (William Hill 8 Places)

Kevin Roy is playing some good golf right now, making five straight cuts with finishes of 15th, 18th, and most recently 8th last week in that time. He was also the co-leader after round 1 last week, shooting 62.

Roy now returns to the John Deere Classic, an event he played two years ago and finished 31st at. More encouragingly, he was 5th after round 2, and still 6th going into Sunday that week, despite a really slow start on the Thursday. Middle rounds of 63-68 put him in the mix, and while he didn’t react that well on the Sunday, he returns more experienced now.

At 35 years old, we are not talking about a new phenom by any means, but he does seem to be a far-improved player in 2025, with six top 20 finishes, including two top 10s under his belt already in 2025.

He’s performing well in the weaker fields for now, and that’s fine given Ben Griffin is going off as the 16/1 favourite in this one.

Roy has ranked 20th, 13th and 3rd in SG Approach and 58th, 15th and 4th in SG Tee to Green in the last three events, so his ball striking is heading in the right direction, and I think he can get in the hunt here, where 4 of the last 7 winners were winning for the first time on Tour.

At 66/1, I think we are getting decent value on an in-form player who has shown he can shoot low round this golf course, and has improved as a player since then as well.

The Banker: Michael Thorbjornsen 35/1 e/w (Sky Bet, Paddy Power 6 Places)

Michael Thorbjornsen looks like one of those young PGA Tour players who look destined to break through, and with Collin Morikawa’s long-term caddie, JJ Jakovac now on his bag, this could come sooner, rather than later.

The two worked together for the first time in tournament play last week at the Rocket Classic, and that led to a 4th place finish, and that was Thorbjornsen’s sixth top 10 in his last 25 starts on Tour.

One of those was in the Zurich Classic, but most importantly, one of them was a T2 finish here at the John Deere Classic 12 months ago, when he lost out to a rampant Davis Thompson that week.

With two 2nd’s, two 4th’s, and two 8th place finishes already under his belt as an individual on the PGA Tour, Thorbjornsen already knows what it is like to be in the mix, and he will continue his quest for a maiden victory this week.

Thorbjornsen fits the mould of players like Michael Kim, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jordan Spieth as former standout amateurs who have gone on to pick up their first PGA Tour win here, and I like his chances of doing so.

The Bonus Pick: Pierceson Coody 40/1 e/w (Sky Bet, Paddy Power 6 Places)

I expected a bigger price than this, but that was more hopeful than anything else, as it’s clear Pierceson Coody’s form on the Korn Ferry Tour has been correctly baked in.

Factor in back-to-back top 25 starts in his last two PGA Tour starts as well, and it looks like Coody could be a big threat here. Over both tours, his last seven starts read T-25-T25-T16-T12-T2-3-T7, and he now returns to a course he’s played before.

Coody teed it up here 12 months ago and finished 30th, but a final round 64 there was particularly eye-catching, as is his form at the correlating Charles Schwab Challenge. Coody recently finished 16th at Colonial, but last year finished T5 there as well, making it his best PGA Tour stop so far, and plenty of players have enjoyed success at both, as outlined above. That’s a hard form line to ignore, and I don’t intend to.

There’s a clear upside for someone like Coody in an event like this, and while the odds may not be the most eye-catching, this is a fairly weak field, and he’s a man in form on both tours, so we should keep that in mind this week.