2025 Open betting tips: Our expert’s top selections on Championship Sunday at Portrush
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Resident tipster Tom Jacobs reveals a final flurry of Open betting tips ahead of Sunday’s Claret Jug decider at Royal Portrush.
Right, let’s see if we can end the 153rd Open in profit, shall we?
Open betting tips: Final round selections
I got this one wrong at halfway. I thought Scottie Scheffler could be caught, and I thought it was Brian Harman who could leapfrog his fellow American. That was on the basis of Scheffler struggling performing better on Saturdays when holding big leads or tied with another, as opposed to with a narrow one-shot lead in the past. That in itself would have been rather flimsy, but I also suspected the putter would slow down and he might just have to grind out a score. In the end he shot -4 and Harman was disappointing. It happens.
The idea that Harman could succeed in a lower-profile pairing may have had some merit in the end, but it was his partner Haotong Li that made the move instead. Li will now go into Sunday as Scheffler’s closest challenger, and he’s four shots behind.
Can Scheffler be caught?
At this stage then resigned to the fact that Scheffler is winning this, and ultimately you have to just tip your hat to the best player in the world if that happens.
Scheffler has converted his last six 54-hole leads and 9 of his last 11 overall. In that span he’s never finished outside the top 2. The biggest 54-hole lead Scheffler has squandered in his career is the 2-shot lead he held at the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge, and he has a 58.8% win rate from a winning position going into Sunday.
He’s clearly the master of his own destiny at this stage, and he’s converted leads in each of his three major wins, where he’s been three shots, one shot, and most recently three shots clear again. It would take a Herculean effort from the chasing pack to stop him now.
If we are looking at who can chase him down, I would probably look to Rory McIlroy, but a six-shot cushion for Scheffler may just be too much, even for the second-best player in the world to overcome.
What about our bets?
Tyrrell Hatton is our best hope in the outright market, and at 28/1 it would be a nice payday if he can cause an upset. Russell Henley (66/1) currently sits in a tie for 9th and we have him at 8 places as well, so we have a couple of chances at each-way returns, but that looks to be it in the outrights.
We backed Tony Finau at 2/1 for a Top 40 at the start of the week and he currently sits in a tie for 29th, while we backed Lee Westwood in the top 20 market at halfway at the same price. Westwood sits in a tie for 14th and I remain hopeful that both can land their respective bets.
Before the off, we backed Antoine Rozner at 4/1 to finish Top Frenchman, and he sits one back of Romain Langasque and level with Adrien Saddier, in what is now a three-man betting market. Fingers crossed the best player of the group can come out on top tomorrow.
Final Round 2-Ball Betting
We went 1/2 on in Rounds 1 and 3 in this betting market, but let’s hope for a cleaner sweep on Sunday, as this tournament comes to a close.
Justin Thomas (13/10) to Beat Tommy Fleetwood in Round 4 (General)
Neither Justin Thomas nor Tommy Fleetwood will be content with their week’s work, but Thomas will end the week knowing he hit his irons well for a couple of rounds at least, and I suspect he might make a run on Sunday.
Fleetwood on the other hand has been leaning on his putter, as his approach play is off, as he’s ranked 139th, 85th, and 39th in SG Approach respectively. Normally a staple of his play, it is a shame to see the Englishman struggle in this department, especially when his putter and to an extent his driver are cooperating.
Thomas has been in a top 20 iron player over the past two rounds and while there’s certainly room for him to improve off the tee, I think he can come out on top in this two-ball. He ranks 5th on the PGA Tour in Round 4 Scoring Average this season, while Fleetwood ranks 57th. The difference isn’t that big, given the sample size and the average scores, but it’s another nugget for us to lean on.
I will back the American with the view that he’s slightly overpriced, based on a British bias toward Fleetwood.
Jhonattan Vegas (6/4) to Beat Daniel Berger (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
Jhonattan Vegas is hitting the his driver better than Daniel Berger, his irons better than Berger, and has also been tidier round the green. The reason he has not been able to separate himself so far has been the putter, but while he continues to lose strokes each round, he is getting marginally better each day, and hopefully on Sunday he can hole a few.
Despite another underwhelming putting round, Vegas did card 4 birdies on Saturday, his best round of the week in that respect, and that might be enough to spur him on in the final round.
There won’t be many eyeballs on this pairing, with neither player close to making an impact on the leaderboard, nor popular enough to draw a big crowd, but Vegas can go about his business early in the day and beat Berger in a low-pressure affair.
Lee Westwood (2/1) to Beat Corey Conners in Round 4 (bet365)
This is a bit of a stab, as it’s hard to make a truly confident bet on a 2/1 shot in a 2-ball, but it’s the price that absolutely makes it worthwhile chancing.
No one has driven the ball better than Westwood this week and there’s a reasonable gap between him and 2nd-placed, Bryson DeChambeau. That means his Tee to Green stats look tidy despite a poor week around-the-greens, and I think he can hold position on Sunday and get the better of Conners, who made a big move on Saturday and might struggle to back it up.
Last week’s T47 finish was Conners’ first start since withdrawing from the final round of the U.S. Open with a wrist injury and while he appears to be fully fit, there’s plenty of situations he could find himself in, which may lead to another flare up of this injury. I am not relying on that, and am instead backing Westwood on merit, but I thought it was noteworthy.
If Westwood continues to pepper the fairways (1st, 1st, and 6th so far in Driving Accuracy this week) then he’s going to keep setting up chances and that could make for a big round on Sunday. He recorded seven birdies in round 3, roaring home with six on the back nine after a slow start to his round, and hopefully that gives him the confidence to go again in Round 4 and get the better of Conners.
Other Bets
Tyrrell Hatton to Finish Top Englishman (13/8 BetMGM, Sky Bet)
Tyrrell Hatton trails Matt Fitzpatrick by one shot but it does now look like a match bet between the two in the Top Englishman market, and I like Hatton’s chances of leapfrogging his Ryder Cup teammate.
Fitzpatrick has done well to stay in contention right to the end of his last two events, but his putter deserted him in Round 3 to prevent another march forward, and he generally regressed across the board in terms of strokes gained on moving day.
Hatton looks good and while the putter didn’t cooperate in round 3, he was close to holing some big putts, and I think he’s ready to make a charge, and apply some sort of pressure on Scheffler. If he does this, I think he can leave Fitzpatrick behind in this market, and the 13/8 was appealing enough to make a bet.
A three-shot cushion over Lee Westwood, Harry Hall, Justin Rose and Matt Wallace should hopefully be enough, and I will instead focus on Hatton going head-to-head with Fitzpatrick on the final day of this Open Championship.
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Expert selected Open betting tips for the final round at Royal Portrush.
