2025 Open betting tips: Our expert’s top weekend picks for Portrush’s deciding days
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TG’s resident tipster Tom Jacobs offers more Open betting tips as the season’s final major heads into moving day.
It has been a thrilling couple of days at Royal Portrush and we are in an epic weekend of action, as World No.1 Scottie Scheffler leads fellow major champions Matt Fitzpatrick by one and Brian Harman by two. Alongside Harman at -8 is Haotong Li, while five players sit in a tie for 5th at -5. Those five? Harris English, last week’s winner Chris Gotterup, and a trio of European Ryder Cup hopefuls in Tyrrell Hatton, Robert MacIntyre and Rasmus Hojgaard. Hatton and MacIntyre have all-but locked up their spot at Bethpage, but Hojgaard is on the outside looking in right now, and will be desperate for a big week here.
Hojgaard is of particular interest, as his best major finish to date is a T32 at the Masters, and now he will be looking for both his first top 10 and his Ryder Cup debut. He will play alongside a potential Ryder Cup teammate in Hatton, so he will be really hoping to impress.
Notables to miss the cut include Collin Morikawa and Brooks Koepka (both +7), the Australasian trio of Adam Scott, Jason Day, and Ryan Fox, LIV Golf standout Joaquin Niemann, and American Ryder Cup star Patrick Cantlay (+3). It was also a short week for Min Woo Lee, which we predicted earlier in the week, former Open Champions Louis Oosthuizen, Padraig Harrington, Zach Johnson and Darren Clarke, and home favorite, Tom McKibbin.
Open betting tips: Weekend picks
With prices now live for the final two days of action, here’s where I see some value…
Scottie Scheffler to take one step closer to the Grand Slam
It’s a big week for Scottie Scheffler. He’s made some comments about winning not being fulfilling, but he will still be excited about the prospect of going down in history, and a win at the Open Championship will see him take another step toward the Grand Slam. Win this weekend, and it will just be the US Open holding Scheffler back from joining the golfing greats, including Rory McIlroy who completed the same feat at the Masters this year.
Three times in his career, Scheffler has led at the halfway stage of a major, twice converting the lead at Augusta. On the other occasion, he was one of three players to share the lead at the PGA Championship going into the weekend, only for all three of those players to surrender to Brooks Koepka on Sunday. Scheffler shot a Saturday 73 that week, but a Sunday 65 saw him put the pressure on Koepka, and close the gap to two shots.
With that said, Scheffler has only converted six of the 18 36-hole leads he has held, a 33% strike rate. He’s converted leads of three, five and six strokes at this stage in the past, but he’s never converted a one-shot lead.
He was one-shot clear at the Houston Open earlier this year, but was five back by the time Sunday came around, eventually losing by one. He was in the same situation at the 2024 Sentry, where he again struggled on moving day, bouncing back with a final-round 66 to save face.
Before that, Scheffler also held a one-shot lead at the Byron Nelson, shot a Saturday 71, and then a final-round 65. It’s a strange nuance, but Scheffler seems to either put his foot down when holding a clear cushion, or separates himself from the pack when tied for the lead.
The difficulty of converting such a narrow lead has been a problem for him in the past.
What of the Chasing Pack?
Matt Fitzpatrick is looking for a second major title, three years after winning his first, and he’s returned to form just at the right time. He looks in good shape so far, leading the field in SG: Tee to Green, and while he can thank his around-the-green game for a good portion of that, he’s been solid across the board.
The man he ranks directly ahead of in the T2G standing is also just behind him on the leaderboard, as Brian Harman is just one shot back of Fitzpatrick and, like the Englishman, is looking for a second major title having won this event two years ago.
Haotong Li is the only other player in touching distance of the lead, as he sits at -8 alongside Harman, and just two shots back of Scheffler. Some might be surprised to see Li in this position, but he has a history of strong major performances, having finished 3rd in this event in 2017, as well as holding the 36-hole lead at the 2020 PGA Championship, eventually settling for a 17th place finish.
He was 16th at the US Open and 32nd at the Masters, both in 2018 to round out a strong group of major efforts, and now he’s playing arguably the most consistent golf of his career, we shouldn’t be too shocked to see him in contention here. While he has to be considered the most likely to fall away, his iron play has been fantastic, with the leader the only player ranking higher in SG: Approach thru 36 holes.
MacIntyre and Hatton would both be popular winners, but they would need some help from the leaders, otherwise it looks like a bridge too far at this stage. Given they are chasing down a trio of major champions who are three, four, and five shots clear, it might be too hard for them make up the ground and give us a British winner.
Round 3 Two-Ball Betting
The tee times are out and there a couple of groups I am keen to target as we look to for profit on Day 3 of The 153rd Open.
Thomas Detry (4/5) to beat Jacob Skov Olesen (bet365, Betfred)
JSO led after round 1, but he stuck it in reverse on day two, shooting +5 on Friday – including putting two out of bounds on the 1st hole.
The young Dane gained strokes in all four categories on day one, but it was certainly a strong putter that made the defining difference. On day two, it was a terrible performance off the tee that saw Olesen slide down the leaderboard, as he shot +5 despite some decent iron play at times. He had to hit his irons well just to shoot +5 on Friday, and he if he even remotely struggles in that department on moving day, he’s extremely beatable.
Detry hasn’t holed anything through two rounds of The Open, and while he will need to improve his iron play if he wants to seriously climb the leaderboard, it’s his steady approach versus Olesen’s volatility that make him an appealing play here.
Detry has finished inside the top 14 in The Open, the US Open, and the PGA Championship, so he’s a true major player, while Olesen is playing in just his second of the big four. He did make the cut in this last year, but finished T60, and I suspect it will be a similar result this time around as well. Detry though is the type that can make a weekend charge, and I will rely on that ability in round 3.
Adrien Saddier (11/10) to beat Takumi Kanaya (Boylesports)
Kanaya looks opposable on Saturday, as he’s hitting his irons poorly, and his around-the-green game also looks shaky. He’s made it this far by being accurate off the tee and making plenty of putts, but the putts could dry up at any point, and if they do he’s likely in trouble.
Saddier, on the other hand, looks a little steadier across the board, and why he is also losing strokes on Approach, it’s nowhere near as drastic. Saddier is enjoying a breakout season, picking up his first win at the Italian Open and posting three more top-7 finishes. Kanaya on the other hand has missed six of his last seven cuts, including at the PGA Championship and the US Open. He’s done well to make the weekend here, but he looks a prime candidate to fall away quickly.
Saddier is the better player right now and he’s in slightly better form this week, I suspect he will show it over the next two rounds.
Round-3 leader betting
While Scheffler has to be considered the favourite to win this tournament, his record on moving day has been sketchy, especially when leading by one, so I will him on today.
Brian Harman to lead after round 3 (10/1, 2 places e/w, Betfred)
Scottie Scheffler is one clear at the top of the leaderboard, and will play with his closest rival, Matt Fitzpatrick on Saturday. This means Brian Harman, who is just one shot further back can play avoid the biggest crowds, as he plays with Haotong Li. While both players are in contention, the crowds will likely be with the two leaders, and other groups that include the likes of Tyrrell Hatton and Robert MacIntyre.
With that in mind, I think Harman can go quietly about his business again on Saturday and put himself in contention for a second Claret Jug, and another impressive win. While I do wonder if he can get the better of Scheffler on Sunday, especially if he doesn’t hold a big lead like he did at Royal Liverpool, I do think he can put his nose in front tomorrow, and let the others come to him.
Betfred are offering two places in this market, so you can also enjoy a small profit if he ends up inside the top 2. He’s the quiet, unassuming type who is unlikely to get himself in trouble off the tee, and that steady game should see him stay in the mix.
Lee Westwood to finish inside the top 20 (2/1, bet365, Betfred, Bet Victor)
I am making one more bet at this stage, and it is to place a bet on a wily veteran who’s game looks in great shape through two rounds.
Lee Westwood came into the event in a buoyant mood and he was right to do so, as he’s been one of the better operators tee-to-green through two rounds, and he now needs to find his putting boots.
That hasn’t been Westwood’s most trusted tool over the years, but he can still lurk inside the top 20 without holing too many putts over the weekend, such is the strength of his tee-to-green game.
Westwood ranks inside the top-5 for SG: Tee to Green through two rounds, sitting directly ahead of Scottie Scheffler, and he’s been the best driver in the field, even ranking ahead of LIV Golf colleague, Bryson DeChambeau.
He can continue to roll back the years here over the next two rounds and post a second-consecutive top 20 at this golf course, even if he doesn’t quite hit the same heights as his T4 finish in 2019.
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Expert selected Open betting tips for the weekend at Royal Portrush.
