We’ve already ruled 125 players out of The Open – so who CAN win at Royal Portrush?

With just one round of The Open in the books, history tells us that only 31 of the 156-man field have a realistic chance of victory at Royal Portrush…

The opening round of the 153rd Open brought sunshine, downpours, gusting winds, incredible shots, terrible shots (yes, we saw you miss the ball, Bryson), a packed leaderboard, and a whole lot of drama! But, with just 18 holes gone, the stats dictate that the hopes of lifting the Claret Jug have come to an early end for 125 of the field.

But why? Well, we love delving into history to determine major champions here at TG Towers, so we’ve crunched the numbers from the last 25 Opens (anything further felt too out of touch) to look at the trends and statistics through 18 holes of the year’s final men’s major… and it doesn’t make great reading for those who didn’t make a strong start.

On average, the eventual Champion Golfer of the Year has been inside the top nine places and within three shots of the lead after Thursday’s play (well, top 8.8 and within 2.52 shots, but we’ve rounded up).

What do the 25-year trends look like?

On that basis, it’s good news for the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Lee Westwood, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, oh, and some local guy called Rory McIlroy. But for Bob MacIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau and a whole host more, their race is run. Of course, history can be proved wrong, which brings us on to.

Can anyone buck the trend?

It’s always possible. Just look at the Masters, where history ruled Rory out through 18 holes… and we know what happened next. A few have come from way back (Todd Hamilton in T40, for example) to win The Open this century, but every player who has won the tournament in the last 25 playings has been within five shots of the lead after round one. And only three have come from that far back, so anyone who is further outside that line is going to need to do something spectacular across the next 54 holes.

So, who can we definitely rule out?

While the average suggests we should completely rule out anyone who’s more than three shots back, we’ll be generous and extend it to five, as there are those three examples where it has happened, but it’s unlikely. Even then, we can already wave goodbye to some huge names’ hopes, including Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, and Bryson DeChambeau.

In fact, you can definitely bid farewell to the chances of all of these.

OK, who can still win at Portrush?

This is where I am sticking to the trends. The winner needs to be within three shots of the lead – otherwise we’ll be saying 71 players can still be victorious, such is the number of players at even-par and 1-over.

It’s a risky tactic, and we could be proved wrong, but we’ll put our neck on the line and say your Champion Golfer of the Year will be one of these 31 players.

And if we were to just go with the average position of 9th, we’d have to rule out everyone below Tyrell Hatton.

• Tee times and groups for Friday’s 2nd round
• LIV star laments slow play as major champ warned
• Why is there internal out-of-bounds at Portrush?

Will any of the round one leaders win?

Of course, but it’s not that likely. Just three of the last 25 champions have led after the opening round (Tiger Woods in 2005, Rory McIlroy in ’14, Jordan Spieth in ’15), which means Olesen, Li, Fitzpatrick, Bezuidenhout, and English will need to beat those particular odds.

And the chances of any of them going wire-to-wire are less than 5% – 4.929%, to be exact. In the 142 playings of The Open, only seven men have led after all four rounds: Ted Ray (1912), Bobby Jones (1927), Gene Sarazen (1932), Henry Cotton (1934), Tom Weiskopf (1973), Tiger Woods (2005), Rory McIlroy (2014).

Of course, any of the current leaders could fall back after rounds two or three and still win the major. As impressive as wire-to-wire wins are, all that truly matters is who hoists the silverware come Sunday evening.

What do past Portrush Opens tell us?

Well, there have only been two, so it’s a small sample size. But Max Faulkner was tied-5th and three shots back in 1951, and Shane Lowry was 2nd, just one shot back in 2019.

If we go by Faulkner’s comeback, then nothing changes from our calculations above. If we go by Lowry, then only Matthew Jordan, Scottie Scheffler, Sadom Kaewkanjana, and Tyrrell Hatton would join the five who are tied at the top in still having a chance.

Might as well give the world No.1 the trophy now, then…

• 8 players in danger of missing the cut at Portrush
• R&A make surprise prize money announcement