Open Power Rankings: Who will be leaving Royal Portrush clutching the Claret Jug?
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The 153rd edition of our sport’s oldest major is upon us. So who will be crowned the Champion Golfer at Portrush? We’ve narrowed it down to 30 players in our Open Power Rankings…
Let’s do this one last time, shall we? After backing Rory McIlroy to win the Masters and not even putting JJ Spaun in our top 20 at the US Open – but, then again, who did? – we’re looking to end the men’s major season on a high with our Open Power Rankings.
With 156 players teeing up at Royal Portrush this week – including a combination of wide-eyed amateurs, major debutants, links golf rookies, solid tour pros, and future Hall of Famers – Alex Perry, Rob Jerram, and Rob McGarr have decided to narrow it down to the top 30 players they think have the best chance of jetting out of George Best Airport on Monday morning with the Claret Jug on the seat next to them.
And, just for fun (and because The Open has the tendency to throw a Ben Curtis or Todd Hamilton at us every now and then), our trio of rankers will also choose a wildcard from deeper in the pack.
But we’ll get to those later. For now, though, our top 30 is…
2025 Open Power Rankings
Who will be crowned Prince of Portrush? Let’s dive in.
30. Hideki Matsuyama
Open record: T6-T39-T18-MC-T14-MC-MC-T68-T13-T66
Recent form: T36-38-T42-T30-T13
Missed the cut in ’19 and a T6 on his debut at Muirfield in 2013 remains Matsuyama’s best result on British soil. Recent form and one missed cut in his last 21 major starts suggest he’ll make the weekend, but don’t expect an Augusta-esque bow from caddie Shota Hayafuji at Portrush. RJ
29. Brooks Koepka
Open record: MC–T67–T10–T6–T39–T4–T6–MC–T64–T43
Recent form: MC–T33–T12–WD–T32
Finished T4 here in 2019 but doesn’t look the same player lately. Has as many missed cuts as top-20s in majors since his 2023 PGA Championship win and looks more likely to make headlines for the wrong reasons than the right ones. RM
28. Rickie Fowler
Open record: T14-T5-T31-MC-T2-T30-T46-T22-T28-T6-T53-T23-71
Recent form: T16-T7-T36-MC-T18
Remember that phase we went through of backing Fowler at every Open because he just loves links golf? That was weird, wasn’t it? I like that he’s had three top-6 finishes – including at Portrush in ’19 – and only one missed cut at The Open, and I like that he won the Scottish at Gullane, and I like that he seems to have found something resembling a bit of form this year. I’m talking myself into it again, aren’t I? AP
27. Patrick Cantlay
Open record: T12-T41-MC-T8-T33-T25
Recent form: MC-T12-MC-T12-T32
On course for his worst ever season in the majors, having missed two cuts since a T36 at the Masters, Cantlay needs a positive week if he’s to force his way into Keegan Bradley’s side and challenge Team USA’s apparel suppliers into finding a cap that fits. RJ
26. Joaquin Niemann
Open record: MC–T59–T53–MC–T58
Recent form: T8–1–MC–T23–T23
LIV Golf’s most dominant man can’t crack the code in majors – just one top-10 in 25 tries, and he’s never finished inside the top-50 at The Open. Probably more pumped about JCB than Portrush. RM
25. Sergio Garcia
Open record: MC-T29-MC-T36-T9-T8-T10-MC-T5-T5-2-T51-T38-T14-T9-MC-T21-T2-T6-T5-T37-MC-T67-T19-T68
Recent form: T42-T67-T38-T25-T10
Just snuck into The Open and just sneaks into our top 25. Let’s not beat around the bush. This week is about one thing and one thing only: proving to Luke Donald that he is worthy of a place in the European Ryder Cup team in September. Garcia will have to turn around his miserable major form though. His last top 10 in one of the big four was in 2017 and earned him a nice new green jacket. AP
24. Jason Day
Open record: T60–T30–T32–T58–T4–T22–T27–T17–MC–MC–T2–T13
Recent form: T49–MC–T23–T4–MC
At the start of the year, I vowed to be up by 6.30 every morning and to practice chipping every day until I holed two. I also picked Jason Day to win The Open. The chipping lasted two days and the early starts not much longer, but at least Day is keeping the dream alive… for now. RM
23. Matt Fitzpatrick
Open record: T44–MC–T44–MC–T20–T26–T21–T41–T50
Recent form: T8–T31–T38–T17–T8
If history is anything to go by, Fitzy will almost certainly be there on Sunday – but don’t expect to see much of him on the live coverage. He’s made 17 cuts in the last 19 majors and hasn’t missed an Open weekend since 2018, but he’s rarely in contention – just two top-5s in 42 career majors, and a best Open finish of T20 in 2019. RM
22. Sepp Straka
Open record: MC-T2-T22
Recent form: MC-3-MC-T45-7
He’s yet to make the weekend in a major in 2025, but Straka’s PGA Tour form has been excellent with two wins and a host of top 10s and he arrives off the back of a solid week at Renaissance. Only a dominant Brian Harman denied him the Claret Jug in 2023, and victory in Portrush would be the first for an Austrian in any of the grand slam events. RJ
21. Cam Young
Open record: 2–T8–31
Recent form: T25–T4–T4–T52–T46
Seven runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour – including being just a shot behind Cam Smith at St Andrews in 2022 – but still chasing that elusive win. Feels like one of those guys who could win a major having never won a regular tour event, though it seems a disservice to compare him to Shaun Micheel. RM
20. Ryan Fox
Open record: T49-MC-T39-T16-T67-MC-T52-T25
Recent form: T20-1-T19-T17-T65
Few men can say they’ve won an Open in Northern Ireland. Granted, Fox’s 2016 Tayto Northern Ireland Open victory on the Challenge Tour won’t prove decisive this week, but it was still a win on these shores. With some excellent Irish Open results (runner-up in 2018 and ’22; T3 in ’23 and T4 in ’17) and his best major result coming at Portrush in 2019 (T16), the man who has two PGA Tour wins already would be New Zealand’s first men’s major winner since Michael Campbell in 2005. Definitely one for the each-way bet fans. RJ
19. Keegan Bradley
Open record: T34-T15–T19–MC–T18–79–MC–MC–MC–MC–MC
Recent form: T8–T7–T33–1–T41
The form of his life has given him a Ryder Cup headache, but there’s every chance he’ll have a free weekend to mull it all over based on his appalling Open record. He’s missed the cut in the last five and hasn’t managed an under-par round in one since 2016. RM
18. Russell Henley
Open record: T73-MC-T20-MC-T37-MC-MC-T62-MC-5
Recent form: T46-MC-T5-T10-T2
The World No.5 (yes, I double checked) is playing the best golf of his career and was 5th at Troon last year. Missed cuts at two of this year’s three majors bumped him down a few spots, but then the top 10 at Oakmont bumped him back into the top 20. A proper sleeper pick. AP
17. Adam Scott
Open record: MC-T47-MC-MC-T42-T34-T8-T27-T16-MC-T27-T25-2-T3-T5-T10-T43-T22-T17-MC-T46-T15-T33-T10
Recent form: T19-T31-T12-T30-T17
The last time Scott wasn’t part of this major, we were counting down the months to the millennium. The nightmares from that 2012 Lytham meltdown when he bogeyed the final four holes to throw away the Claret Jug may only be banished with victory, and there would be few more popular winners… and none with a better-looking face swing. Proved at the US Open that he’s far from reaching the ‘making up the numbers’ stage of his career, but he missed the cut here in 2019, and his driving accuracy, GIR, and scrambling stats don’t scream ‘Open champ in waiting’. However, he arrives in solid form and, playing his 97th consecutive major, is by far the most experienced man in the field. RJ
16. Bryson DeChambeau
Open record: MC–T51–MC–T33–T8–T60–MC
Recent form: T2–T4–MC–T9–T30
It takes a brave man to write Bryson off these days, but here goes… Great as he is, he’s like a savvy internet user reading a suspicious email: he never clicks on links.
The Open is his bogey major – just one top-10, three missed cuts, no sniffs of victory – and he recently described Portrush as “diabolical”. And Mother Nature isn’t doing her bit. “When it gets wet and windy and nasty, I’ve always struggled,” he admits. There’s rain forecast all week. Eek. RM
15. Collin Morikawa
Open record: W-MC-MC-T16
Recent form: T20-T23-T42-T8-MC
Putting legendary caddie Billy Foster on the bag perhaps didn’t end up being the masterstroke he had hoped as he slumped to a missed cut in Scotland. Still, gave the pair a couple of extra days to hop on a ferry and get to work. One of the more truly peculiar major records, having won on debut before missing the next two cuts ahead of a solid showing last year. One of those that you really wouldn’t be surprised if he won by six or missed the cut by six. Which is a really just a long way of saying I won’t be putting any money on Morikawa at Portrush. AP
14. Justin Thomas
Open record: T53-MC-MC-T11-T40-T53-MC-T31
Recent form: MC-T31-MC-T9-T22
When the former World No.1 shares his season goals at the end of the year we’ll inevitably see ‘Win a Major’ among them, but he’ll have to defy a poor major season that saw him battle to make the cut at the Masters (T36), miss the cut at the PGA, and then four-putt from close range to head home early from the US Open, if he’s to put a green tick next to that.
He’ll also have to defy a pretty wretched Open record, having never managed a top 10. However, his best finish did come at Portrush in 2019 (T11), and he’s shown signs of getting back to his best this year with victory at the RBC Heritage and matching the course record at Sawgrass, and his on-course stats suggest the assets needed for this week are all firing. RJ
13. Jordan Spieth
Open record: T44-T36-T4-T30-W-T9-T20-2-T8-T23-T25
Recent form: T34-MC-T36-T7-T23
I get a lot of grief for putting Spieth so high in these things. But you look me in the eye and tell me why a man who has five top 10 finishes – including a win in ’17 and a should-have-won in ’21 – is not worthy of a place in this particular top table. Plus he and wife Annie have just had another baby, so we can throw in the nappy/diaper factor too. AP
12. Shane Lowry
Open record: T37-T32-T9-MC-MC-MC-MC-W-T12-T21-MC-6
Recent form: MC-T23-T13-MC-T45
When the Irishman tees up on Thursday, it will be his first competitive shot for almost a month. It’s a bold strategy, but there aren’t many better links players on the planet than this guy. He says he’s been playing well, and I for one believe him. It’s just whether or not he can contain the pressure and emotion of returning to the scene of his finest hour. AP
11. Justin Rose
Open record: T4-MC-MC-T44-MC-MC-T23-T6-T22-T54-T2-T20-T46-MC-T2
Recent form: MC-T44-MC-MC-6
Rosey’s game has fallen off a cliff after that brutal playoff defeat to Rory McIlroy at Augusta. But I’m willing to look past that on the basis that the Englishman’s major form is more erratic than an Open weather forecast. Was top 20 here in ’19, which is certainly something to build on. AP
Open champion trends
Before we get into our top 10, we asked TG‘s resident statto Ross Tugwood to give us a quick rundown of some Open champion trends. Here’s what he found…
Previous Open Result
Should we pay too much attention to the leaderboard from Royal Troon last year? The stats suggest we should not.
Of the last 10 champions, only one recorded a top-10 finish at the previous year’s Open.
Xander Schauffele: T17
Brian Harman: T6
Cameron Smith: T33
Collin Morikawa: N/A (won on debut)
Shane Lowry: MC
Francesco Molinari: MC
Jordan Spieth: T30
Henrik Stenson: T40
Zach Johnson: T47
Rory McIlroy: MC
Form
More recent form, though, is much more important. In fact, 8 of the last 10 Open champions had recorded a top-3 finish in at least one of his previous five events. Of the other two, both had top-10 finishes in the build up to The Open.
Xander Schauffele: 1-T8-T7-T13-T15
Brian Harman: MC-T43-T2-T9-T12
Cameron Smith T13-T13-T48-MC-T10
Collin Morikawa MC-T8-T14-2-T4
Shane Lowry MC-T8-Y2-T28-T34
Francesco Molinari T16-MC-T25-W-T2
Jordan Spieth MC-T2-T13-T35-W
Henrik Stenson T24-MC-MC-W-T13
Zach Johnson T19-5-T72-6-T3
Rory McIlroy T6-T15-T23-T76-T14
Since 2000, 17 of 24 champions (71%) had already won at least once in the calendar year prior to their Open success.
Position after each round:
Seven of the last 10 Champions have been in the top-5 on the leaderboard after the first round, while only two have come from outside the top-3 to win with 18 holes to play.
Xander Schauffele: T4-T7-T2
Brian Harman: T4-1-1
Cameron Smith: T3-1-T3
Collin Morikawa: T9-2-2
Shane Lowry: 2-T1-1
Francesco Molinari: T18-T29-T6
Jordan Spieth: T1-1-1
Henrik Stenson: T12-2-1
Zach Johnson: T2-T4-T6
Rory McIlroy: 1-1-1
World Rankings
Of the last 10 champions, the lowest-ranked was 33rd, while the average ranking is 13th.
Xander Schauffele: 3rd
Brian Harman: 26th
Cameron Smith: 6th
Collin Morikawa: 4th
Shane Lowry: 33rd
Francesco Molinari: 15th
Jordan Spieth: 3rd
Henrik Stenson: 6th
Zach Johnson: 25th
Rory McIlroy: 8th
Incidentally, since the turn of the century, Tiger Woods is the only player to win The Open while ranked No.1 in the world, while Ernie Els, Jordan Spieth, and Xander Schauffele are the only other players to do it while ranked inside the top 3.
Age
The average age of the Open champion since 2000 is 32.5 – ranging from 23-year-old Jordan Spieth to 43-year-old Phil Mickelson. That average drops to 31 when you narrow it down to the last 10 Champions.
Xander Schauffele: 30
Brian Harman: 36
Cameron Smith: 28
Collin Morikawa: 24
Shane Lowry: 32
Francesco Molinari: 35
Jordan Spieth: 23
Henrik Stenson: 40
Zach Johnson: 39
Rory McIlroy: Age 25
And our top 10 is…
10. Patrick Reed
Open record: MC-T20-T12-MC-T28-10-MC-T47-T33
Recent form: T23-T23-W-MC-T10
A make-or-break week for Captain America, who recently said he has one week to prove to Keegan Bradley he’s ready for a Ryder Cup return. That week has come, and in-form Reed will be looking to build on that top 10 finish last time The Open was in Northern Ireland. AP
9. Viktor Hovland
Open record: T12–T4–T13–MC
Recent form: T28–T25–3–WD-T11
A solo third at Oakmont was his fourth top-four major finish in the last four seasons, which is a mouthful but also shows his pedigree.
Now for the less positive part… A neck injury ended his Travelers Championship after two holes of the final round and the short game gremlins seem to be back in: he ranks 140th on the PGA Tour in SG: Around-the-Green and 131st in SG: Putting.
He’s 2nd in SG: Approach, though, so just needs to keep hitting it stiff and not get a stiff neck. RM
8. Robert MacIntyre
Open record: T6-T8-T34-T71-T50
Recent form: T20-T36-2-T17-65
Only two moments of brilliance from JJ Spaun denied Bob Mac a first major at last month’s US Open and changed the conversations from “if” to “when” he wins one of the big four. But the 28-year-old heads into The Open after an “horrific” defence of his Scottish Open title.
The Scot names Portrush as his favourite links course in the world, which should lift his spirits, and he knows a decent result would also all-but rubber-stamp his spot for Bethpage, but he will have to defy his poor 2025 putting stats if he’s to have genuine hope of going one step better than Oakmont. RJ
7. Ludvig Aberg
Open record: MC
Recent form: T16-T13-MC-T36-T8
The man who’d be plastered across teenagers’ bedroom walls if he was a popstar (and this was the 90s) would make selling the 2026 Open even easier for the R&A if he were to lift the trophy and become the poster-boy for Birkdale.
But it’s hard to tell which Aberg will turn up at Portrush. He’s now missed more cuts than he’s made in the majors (4-3) but has always contended when making the weekend. It feels like Portrush should suit his game and he’s off the back of his best finish since The Masters, but he’ll need to defy his poor 2025 driving accuracy, GIR, scrambling and putting stats if he’s to join Henrik Stenson in the short list of Swedes who have lifted the famous trophy. RJ
6. Xander Schauffele
Open record: T20-T2-T41-T26-T15-T17
Recent form: T28-T25-T12-T61-T8
There’s no safer bet to make the weekend and finish top 20 than the defending champ, who’s never missed an Open cut, has the longest active cut streak on tour (68 tournaments), and averages 17th in the year’s final major.
But no one’s successfully defended the Claret Jug since 2008, and Schauffele’s numbers don’t back him to change that. Though he says he’s “a hundred percent” after injury, he hasn’t won since Troon and, prior to the Scottish Open, had just one top-10 (T8 at the Masters).
Ahead of Portrush, the World No.3’s outside the PGA Tour’s top 100 in a host of key stats, including SG: Putting (130th) and Driving Accuracy (161st). RJ
5. Tyrrell Hatton
Open record: MC-MC-MC-MC-T5-MC-T51-T6-MC-T11-T20-MC
Recent form: T60-T15-T4-T5-T23
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again – Hatton’s major record is nowhere near befitting a man of his obvious talent. Clearly likes seaside golf, given he’s won the Dunhill Links three times. His T6 at Portrush in ’19 is also a promising signifier, as is the fact that, just last month, he contended for the US Open until a 71st-hole bogey killed his chances. AP
4. Tommy Fleetwood
Open record: MC-MC-MC-T27-T12-2-T33-T4-T10-MC
Recent form: T4-T16-MC-T2-T34
Could Portrush prove to be the place where the genial Englishman finally ditches his role as bridesmaid and waltzes down the aisle tunnel as the bride? Runner-up to Lowry in 2019, victory would also get the ‘hasn’t won on the PGA Tour’ monkey off his back, although he still won’t have won in America… until he secures the winning point at Bethpage in September, of course.
His form’s good and Fleetwood tends to bounce back well from adversity, although that silver suit and shoes combo he rocked at Wimbledon did raise concerns that he’s going through a crisis… or was trying to channel the Claret Jug. RJ
3. Scottie Scheffler
Open record: T8–T21–T23–T7
Recent form: T4–1–T7–T6–T8
The fact The Open is his worst major with that record just highlights how ridiculous the world No.1 really is.
His major finishes so far this year read: 4–1–T7.
He’s finished inside the top-8 in 10 tournaments in a row and won three of them.
He ranks 2nd in SG: Off-the-tee, 1st in SG: Approach, 24th in SG: Around-the-Green, and 20th in SG: Putting. That flawless package (wasn’t that one of George Michael’s?) puts him first in SG: Overall and gains him 10.4 shots across four days against the field. Most players will assume that if they finish above him, they’ll have had a very good week. RM
2. Rory McIlroy
Open record: T42–T47–T3–T25–T60–MC–1–T5–T4–T2–MC–T46–3–T6–MC
Recent form: T47–MC–T19–T6–T2
If you’d said before the start of the season that Rory would be coming back to his home Open with three wins and a major under his belt this year, you’d have checked that time hadn’t wound back a decade and then assumed he’d be the clear favorite.
And he would be, but for two things.
One is Scottie Scheffler.
The other, perhaps even more troubling, is that the Grand Slam completion that was meant to complete him seems to have come with its own issues. Performances since Augusta have been mixed, and his temperament seems volatile. Will the pressure of Portrush – where he hit his opening shot OB and missed the cut last time – galvanize or derail him? RM
1. Jon Rahm
Open record: T59-T44-MC-T11-T3-T34-T2-T7
Recent form: T8-T8-T7-T11-2
After a rocky patch in the months following his controversial move to LIV Golf, Rahm has found his rhythm again in the major championships.
Even at Troon last year, when his popularity was arguably as low as its ever been, the Spaniard managed a tie for 7th. It’s really hard to comprehend a future where the Claret Jug doesn’t have Rahm’s name stamped on it.
Domestically, Rahm has finished outside the top-10 just once in 18 months on LIV Golf – even if he does himself admit it’s easier than the PGA Tour – while at The Open, he has carded just five over-par rounds in the last five times he’s teed up at golf’s oldest major.
Incidentally, those over-par rounds are split evenly at one each over the last half a decade, so if he can just avoid that one blip, he’ll get over the line.
Don’t be surprised if he does it at Royal Portrush, just a few miles up the road from where he made his DP World Tour breakthrough at Portstewart.
Our resident (and in-form) tipster Tom Jacobs has backed him – and that’s good enough for me. AP
The wildcards
So who might surprise us? Oddly, given the country’s record at The Open in recent years, we’ve picked out a trio of Englishmen…
Lee Westwood
Open record: T96-MC-T10-T64-T18-T64-T47-MC-MC-4-MC-T31-T35-T67-T3-2-MC-T45-T3-MC-T49-T22-T27-T61-T4-T59-T34
Recent form: T48-T25-T10-T25-T32
This felt really good when I was discussing it with my colleagues but now it’s written down it seems utterly insane. But here are my arguments: Westwood is arguably playing his best golf since joining LIV Golf, he waltzed through Final Qualifying, he will be absolutely buzzing to be back playing in The Open, and he finished T4 last time out at Portrush.
It’s really more of a vibe-based arguement, but if that isn’t enough to convince you to have a look at LJW as an outsider, then I can’t help you.
Now, here are two much more well-reasoned suggestions… AP
Marco Penge
Open record: MC-MC
Recent form: T28, T25, T21, T11, T2
This is just his third Open and fourth major, but don’t let that or the 100-1 price from the bookies fool you. He won his first DP World Tour title at the Hainan Classic in May and made his first major cut at the PGA Championship the same month, finishing T28. His form since Quail Hollow has been on an upward trajectory and he heads into the final men’s major off the back of a T2 alongside Rory McIlroy at last week’s Scottish Open in which he showed there’s far more to his game than power. He combined his distance with creativity and touch around the greens to challenge for a second title, move into the world’s top 100 for the first time (92nd), and raise expectations for Portrush.
The man who topped the Challenge Tour rankings in 2023 has significantly improved his stats since his debut DP World Tour season in 2024, sitting inside the top 10 for driving distance, GIR, and putts per GIR, and 2nd in stroke average. He was 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee in Scotland and inside the top 10 around the green, but his season’s driving accuracy (45th and just below Tour average) will need to improve if he is to contend, even if he does have the power to overcome Portrush’s testing rough. How many bunkers he finds could prove key. The 27-year-old is down in 110th for sand saves, averaging one in two, and managed just one from three at Renaissance.
None the less, he’s a man in form and full of confidence, and while expecting him to become the first Englishman to lift the Claret Jug since Sir Nick Faldo in 1992 might be a big ask, he’s got most of the tools and has proved he can mix it with the very best.
Harry Hall
Open record: Rookie
Recent form: T6–T24–T9–T13–T17
The Cornishman has posted seven straight top-25 finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T17 at the Scottish Open, where opening rounds of 67-64 placed him second at the midway stage.
He’s 73rd in the Official World Golf Rankings but 23rd according to Data Golf, which many feel provides a more accurate and up-to-date reflection. And, unlike most of those above him, he’s a links specialist, having grown up playing West Cornwall.
He ranks 9th in Strokes Gained on the PGA Tour and that’s all thanks to his short game – 15th in SG: Around the Green, 3rd in SG: Putting – which history shows will be more important than anything else this week, with these average key stats for the last 10 Open winners:
Driving Accuracy: 36.9
Driving Distance: 27.7
GIR: 14.7
Scrambling: 9.4
Putting Average: 8.7
Winning it on the first try might be a stretch, but he clocked a top-20 in his PGA Championship debut in May and I’m backing him to do the same here. RM
