2025 US Open betting tips: Can our tipster keep his winning streak going at Oakmont?

Our resident expert names his top US Open betting tips ahead of the third major of 2025…

Another US Open ‘war of attrition’ lies in wait for the 156-man field at the mighty Oakmont Country Club, where one of golf’s most brutal layouts is anticipated to keep the leading scores around even par for the week.

It’s a minefield to predict this week in what will undoubtedly be another US Open ‘war of attrition’. Some heavily fancied players will inevitably post some uncharacteristically big scores, making this one of the season’s toughest tournaments to call.

Fear not, though! Our man in the know is on red-hot form going into this one!

Fresh off the back of a sensational 1-2 pick at the RBC Canadian Open, TG tipster – Tom Jacobs, has dived straight back into the markets to pull out where the value lies ahead of the opening drives of the 2025 US Open.

And if you’re not 100% sold on the below, then see our 2025 US Open Power Rankings – where we’ve picked out the 20 players we can see lifting the trophy on Sunday.

2025 US Open betting tips: Outright winner

The Banker: Jon Rahm 11/1 e/w (Boylesports, Coral 10 Places 1/5)

After a lean spell at the start of 2024 in the majors, Jon Rahm closed the year out with a T7 finish at the Open Championship, and he’s shown signs of life again in the biggest events of the year in 2025.

A 14th-place finish at Augusta suggests it’s business as usual for the Spaniard there, where he always plays well, and I am willing to put the 2024 missed cut down to the lack of form for defending champions in the event.

It wasn’t the Masters that really caught my eye, though, it was at the PGA Championship where for a short period on Sunday it looked like he could win. A blowup at the end of his round meant he fell down the leaderboard, but make no mistake about it, he was the only one putting pressure on Scottie Scheffler, and we should not overlook the importance of contending at a recent major.

Rahm has already enjoyed success in this event, having won the 2021 renewal at Torrey Pines, and while the event being held there was the perfect storm for the Spaniard, he has already shown a liking for this layout as well. Finishing T23 on his debut here, Rahm finished the week as Low Amateur, and his final three rounds were really strong, after starting poorly on Thursday.

His overall record outside of his win in the U.S. Open is very strong as well, having finished 3rd, 10th, and 12th as well as securing that victory four years ago. When 12th, he was 3rd after both rounds 2 and 3, so he’s been in the mix multiple times in this event now. He trailed Matt Fitzpatrick by one stroke going into the final round at Brookline but a poor Sunday dented his chances of back-to-back U.S. Open victories. Still, getting in the mix as a defending champion is no small feat.

Full of confidence after his showing at Quail Hollow, Rahm will be looking to keep up his record bi-annual major win since breaking through, having won in 2021, 2023, and hopefully now 2025.

Rahm is still one of the very best players in the world, and I suspect he will show it this week at Oakmont.

The Outsider: Joaquin Niemann 30/1 e/w (Betfred 8 Places 1/5)

It’s time. I am ready to take the leap with Joaquin Niemann, who cracked the top 10 in a major for the first time by finishing 8th at the PGA Championship.

Since that strong performance at Quail Hollow, where he grew into the event after a slow start, Niemann has just won his fourth LIV Tour event of the year, closing out with four birdies from the 14th to the 17th hole at LIV Virginia, then going on to par the last to get the job done.

No matter what you think about the LIV Tour, Niemann has to beat Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm every time he tees it up, and those two feature heavily at the top of every major odds board. Sure, Niemann has a bit to prove in the big events to earn his spot there, but we know he can win, as he’s shown against some of the game’s truly elite players six times now since deferring from the PGA Tour.

Twice a winner on the PGA Tour, once on the DP World Tour, another win in Asia, and six wins on the LIV Tour, Niemann is a winning machine at the age of 26, and there is really only one thing left for him to do and that is for him to contend in one of the four biggest events.

Niemann missed the cut in this event as an amateur back in 2017, but in his last four U.S Open starts, he has made all four cuts, with a best finish of T23. That week he was inside the top 12 for each of the first three rounds at Winged Foot, and now he’s gotten the monkey off his back with a top 10 at the PGA Championship, and won again on LIV since, it’s time to give him a fair shot of winning one of the big ones.

We are too quick to write people off in Golf, but it pays to remember Phil Mickelson was 33 when he won the Masters in 2004, and he went on to win five more majors. I am not for one minute suggesting Niemann will do the same, and Phil for sure had built up a huge collection of contending form in the majors before breaking through, but I am merely pointing out that at 26 it’s too early to overlook Niemann based on past ‘failures’.

As one of the bigger hitters in the field, who ranked 3rd in Approach at the PGA Championship despite a tough opening round, Niemann has a great foundation to build on and I can’t see any reason not to take a shot, given he has now posted that first major top 10 everyone was longing for.

The Longshot: Harris English 80/1 e/w (Betfred 8 Places 1/5)

We have backed Harris English a couple of times this season, first at the Truist Championship, where he just missed out on the places at these same odds, and then again at a much shorter price at the Charles Schwab, where he didn’t make the grade.

Either side of those results, though, English finished 2nd at the PGA Championship and 12th at The Memorial to suggest he’s in rock-solid form. With career-best finishes in both The Masters (12th) and the PGA Championship (2nd), he will need a 2nd place finish or a win here to make it a hat-trick, having finished 3rd at the U.S. Open when Rahm won in 2021.

With four top-12 finishes in his last six starts and a great start to the year in the majors, English will be looking to capitalise with another win to add to his collection, especially in a Ryder Cup year. Of course, winning a major isn’t just any other win, but I do think English is building toward a big win, and this is certainly the sort of test that he relishes.

In addition to his strong recent form, English should be confident returning to Oakmont, where he was inside the top 16 for the first two rounds back in 2016, and was still 21st going into the final round – eventually finishing 37th.

His ball striking numbers at the PGA were close to the best of his career, and while he did it differently at The Memorial, where a dynamite putter drove his strong performance, I am confident English can put the two together here.

English is 9/9 for made cuts in the U.S. Open, and after not finishing better than his 37th here at Oakmont, in his first four U.S. Open appearances, he has certainly found a liking for this event. His last five starts in this major read 4-3-61-8-41, making it three top-8 finishes in his last five tournament appearances. With the perfect blend of tournament form, strong recent major performances, and good current form, I think he’s somewhat overpriced once again.

The Bonus Pick: Sepp Straka 45/1 e/w (William Hill 8 Places)

You will notice this is the longest case I make all week, and that was because I was torn between a couple here, with Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, and last week’s winner, Ryan Fox all in the reckoning. In the end it was Sepp Straka who I had the hardest time leaving out.

The final elimination came between Straka and Henley, and while Henley has great experience in the U.S. Open, having twice been the first-round leader, and threatening to go wire-to-wire at Torrey Pines in 2021, it is Straka and his more bulletproof performances on Sunday who I trust more.

A lot of that has to do with Straka’s superior ranking in SG Off the Tee. Neither Straka nor Henley are long, but Straka ranks 37th in SG Off the Tee and Henley ranks 131st, despite both of them being two of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball.

Straka’s statistical profile is absolutely perfect for this test, despite his lack of distance, as he ranks 3rd in SG Approach, just dropping behind Shane Lowry this past weekend, 4th in SG Tee to Green, and a very useful 17th in SG Putting.

The Austrian has failed to make a dent in the majors this year, missing his first two cuts of the year, but the same can be said for Henley and other top players like Brooks Koepka and Cam Smith, so it ultimately comes down to whether you believe he can right that wrong, which I think he can.

Already a two-time winner this season, who has been in the mix a couple of times more on top of that, Straka is playing some of the best golf of his career, despite disappointing weeks at the Masters and the PGA Championship in 2025. He has been in the mix in the big ones before, though, finishing 7th at the 2023 PGA Championship before going on to be one of Brian Harman’s closest challengers at the Open Championship later that year, where he finished T2.

He’s yet to have a standout performance in this event, missing two cuts in four U.S. Open starts, but he was well placed after two rounds on debut back in 2019, when he was 8th after round 1 and still 16th going into the weekend, and last year when 56th, he started reasonably, sitting 16th after round 1 and 27th going into the third round. Generally speaking, Straka has found himself outgunned at the U.S. Open, where distance generally gives you a huge edge, but in 2016, one of the shortest hitters, Jim Furyk finished T2, and Lowry, who should have one that week, is hardly considered one of the longest.

In fact, these days, Lowry and Straka hit it about the same distance, and while that distance had Lowry further up the distance charts 9 years ago, I don’t think anyone will rule out the Irishman this week due to a lack of firepower. In which case, we should look at Straka in the same way. The 2016 leaderboard as a whole was littered with shorter drivers, like Kevin Na, who finished 7th, and Zach Johnson, Jason Dufner, and Daniel Summerhays, all of whom finished T8. Simply put, there are more ways than one to navigate one of the toughest exams in golf, and Straka is well placed to do so.

His current form reads 13-12-1-MC-3, and while that sole missed cut came at the PGA Championship, I am willing to give Straka the benefit of the doubt that a tough win where he had to grind it out against Shane Lowry the week before just emptied the tank a little too much the week before Quail Hollow. He comes into this week having sat out of the Canadian Open, and he’s in slightly better form than he was when doing that at The Masters. Let’s see if Straka can finally turn his excellent 2025 form into major contention this week.