2025 US Open specials: My favorite first round Oakmont betting tips

Tom Jacobs has picked his potential Oakmont winners; now he’s turning his attention to some US Open specials.

Now that you’ve seen my outright picks for the US Open at Oakmont this week, I thought I’d share some alternative market specials that have really caught my eye.

This felt like one of the tougher specials previews this year, but I have found a couple of bets I do like, and I am confident we can make some money before the weekend with a couple here, so let’s kick things off!

2025 US Open specials

Max Greyserman Top 40 Finish 9/5 (bet365)

Max Greyserman enjoyed a breakout year on the PGA Tour in 2024, and as a player who’s 40th in Driving Distance and pretty good with his putting this season (23rd in SG Putting), he looks the type that can put together a strong week here.

That has already been the case in his last three majors, as he’s finished T33 or better in the 2024 U.S. Open (T21), the 2025 Masters (T33), and the 2025 PGA Championship (T32). He was making his debut in both the Masters and the PGA Championship, so those two results are impressive, and while he missed the cut in the U.S. Open in 2017, he bounced back really nicely last year, almost posting a top 20 finish.

With six top 40 finishes in his last seven starts overall, Greyserman is clearly playing solidly, without his absolute best ball-striking, and at 9/5 he looks decent value to make it four majors in a row, finishing inside the top 40.

At the Masters, Greyserman was 11th after round 1 and 21st going into Sunday and at the PGA Championship he was in 17th place going into the final round, so he’s actually had the opportunity to be even better in the two biggest events this year.

I was tempted to be a bit more bullish and take him in the top 20 market, but he’s only finished inside that number twice in 2025, and while he’s trending nicely with two top 25 finishes after his strong showing at the PGA Championship, this is the smarter bet.

Greyserman finished 2nd in three of his last six starts in 2025 and threatened to win on multiple occasions now, so it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he found himself much higher placed after a couple of rounds, I’ll just be a little conservative based on recent upside. I like his game for this though, even if he’s been a bit wayward off the tee this season.

Marc Leishman Top 40 Finish 15/8 (SpreadEx)

Out of sight, out of mind is the fairest phrase to explain Marc Leishman, who is making his first major start since missing the cut in the 2022 Open Championship.

In that same year though, Leishman posted his best U.S. Open finish to date with a T14 finish at Brookline, his fourth top 40 finish in his last seven starts in the event.

One of those other top 40 finishes came here, when finishing T18 in 2016, and that along with his T14 last time marks two top 20s in this major.

The Australian was 11th at the halfway mark here nine years ago, with two rounds of 69 and an opening 71 combating what was a poor 77 on Saturday. The conditions weren’t great that day and clearly got the better of him, because the rest of the week was good.

There has been a decent amount of crossover with this U.S. Open venue and the Masters, with the last two winners of the U.S. Open here, Angel Cabrera (2007) and Dustin Johnson (2016) both going on to win at Augusta as well. Leishman loves it at Augusta, with three top 9 finishes there, and given this is also a venue described as having a bit of a ‘links feel’ that should also play into his hands, given he has three top 7 finishes in the Open Championship, including a playoff loss to Zach Johnson who finished T8 here in 2016.

Leishman is enjoying a good year on LIV where he has won (LIV Miami) and finished inside the top 12 on three other occasions, including when 10th last week in Virginia.

I understand why he’s not being talked about as much these days, but at his best, Leishman is a great major player, and some of his form this year suggests we should get him onside somehow, as he makes his first major start since 2022.

Russell Henley First Round Leader 50/1 e/w (BetMGM, Unibet 7 Places)

I like Russell Henley’s chances of starting fast this week, as he led this event on day one, on two occasions, first in 2018, and then again at Torrey Pines in 2021, where he held onto the lead for the next two rounds as well.

As a shorter hitter, Henley’s record in the modern-day U.S. Open is very impressive, and he was very close to my outright betting card. Preference was given to fellow shortie, Sepp Straka there, but in this market, it’s Henley who I am drawn to.

On top of his two opening-day leads in this tournament, Henley has also found himself in the top 5 after round 1 of the 2024 Open Championship, the 2017 Masters, and the 2015 PGA Championship, so he’s no stranger to a quick start in the majors. That in itself is a big deal, as other players need to grow into an event of this magnitude, but not Henley, who has hit the ground running on multiple occasions.

He will need to pound fairways and greens and make more than his fair share of putts on Thursday to come out on top on a soft, longer golf course, but he’s more than capable of doing that, and given his current form, I’ll take a swing he makes it three first round leads in this tournament.

Henley finished 5th last time out at the Memorial, and this adds to a win at Bay Hill, and four more top 10s in 2025. He’s ranked 7th in the OWGR at the moment and playing like a top 15 player in the world, something he can show that again on Thursday, which he’s been used to doing in this event.

Round 1 3-Ball Betting

As ever, I have looked into the round 1 three-ball markets and found a couple of bets I really like for Thursday.

Emiliano Grillo (7/5) to beat Frederic Lacroix and Sam Bairstow in Round 1 (General)

I wanted to bet on Emiliano Grillo in the top 40 market, but then I looked at his U.S. Open record and he’s never cracked the magic number, with his 41st 12 months ago his best effort in this tournament so far.

Last year though, he was 16th after round 1, and that was the second time he has started  well in this major, having opened with a 68 back in 2019 to sit 8th.

He is hitting his irons at an insane level right now, ranking 1st, 3rd and 1st in SG Approach in his last three events, and 7th, 8th and 3rd in SG Tee to Green in those same starts.

In addition to being really hot on approach, Grillo ranked T3 in Driving Accuracy last week in Canada, hitting over 80% of fairways, and that was an improvement on an already impressive display off the tee accuracy wise at the Charles Schwab where he ranked T12 in the same category. Simply put, he has the ball on a string at the moment.

That has to count for something, and while I can’t find any exciting angles to bet on him in the side markets, I think he’s in a good enough position to beat two DP World Tour regulars in Frederic Lacroix and Sam Bairstow.

Lacroix is not only making his debut in the U.S. Open, having played his way in at Walton Heath, this is first major start, and while he’s in solid form, the pressure could certainly tell on day one, as he looks to take the next step in his career.

That was certainly the case for Bairstow who was making his U.S. Open debut 12 months ago, opening with an 84 to guarantee an early flight home. To his credit, he came out and shot a second round 67, but he had no chance of making the weekend, and he could stutter on day one here again.

While Lacroix is playing solidly, Bairstow withdrew last week, having opened with a round of 76 at the KLM Open, far from the ideal preparation ahead of a really tough examination at Oakmont.

Grillo should have chances to post a good score, while his playing partners will just be grateful not to be out of it after the opening round.

Davis Riley (13/8) to beat John Keefer and Jackson Koivun in Round 1 (Paddy Power)

I’m slightly worried that Jackson Koivun is the sort of “can’t miss kid” that makes me eat my words here, but as he prepares for his first major at the age of 20, and John Keefer looks to bounce back from a missed cut at the PGA Championship, where he opened 76-73, I am finding it hard to see how Davis Riley is the rank outsider in this three-ball.

Riley has just finished 2nd at the PGA Championship, adding to his T13 in that same tournament back in 2022, and he also finished T21 on his Masters debut this year. In the same year as he finished T13 at the PGA Championship, he finished T31 in the U.S. Open as well, and while he’s not had the chance to add to that yet, I suspect he could enjoy a decent week.

Koivun could be anything, as he completed a clean sleep of the collegiate golf awards, winning the Haskins Award, Jack Nicklaus Award, Ben Hogan Award and Phil Mickelson Award all in the same year in 2024, but this is such a different environment, and I think Riley’s experience will be the difference between the two.

While I am wary of Koivun’s potential, I found it easier to oppose Keefer who struggled with his irons last week in Canada where he missed the cut, and failed to make an impact at the PGA Championship where he also missed the cut by a distance.

Koivun has the world at his feet and will likely go on to be a good player, and Keefer has shown enough on the Korn Ferry Tour to show he has a bright future himself, but Riley is the only one on the PGA Tour right now, and this is priced up in the wrong way.

Despite finishing 59th last week in Canada, Riley opened with a pair of 68s and anything in the low 70s will give him a good chance of winning here.