2025 US Open weekend betting tips: My top picks for Oakmont’s deciding days

Tom Jacobs offers his top US Open weekend betting tips as the season’s third major heads into Moving Day.

The second round has not yet concluded at the time of writing, but at the top of the leaderboard, it is only Thriston Lawrence who still has one shot to play. Anyone else who is coming out on the course at 7:30 am local time is +5 or worse.

At this point in the proceedings, we have already started to separate the best from the rest, and there will unfortunately be some big casualties once the cut is officially made. With a birdie on the last, Rory McIlroy made the cut at +6, but we are waving goodbye to several of his European Ryder Cup teammates. Ludvig Aberg is one of those, having finished at 8-over-par after two rounds, but the disappointments don’t stop there. Tommy Fleetwood (+9), Sepp Straka (+11), Justin Rose (+14), and Shane Lowry (+17) all missed the cut as well, and it was a similar story for many of the potential U.S. Ryder Cup team. Patrick Cantlay (+8), Wyndham Clark (+8), Bryson DeChambeau (+10), Akshay Bhatia (+10) and Justin Thomas (+12) are all going home early, as is 2016 champion, Dustin Johnson (+10) who is not playing well enough to recapture the magic he showed here 9 years ago to capture his first major title.

Other big names missing the cut include 2022 Open Champion, Cameron Smith (+8), Phil Mickelson (+8), who may have just played in his last U.S. Open, LIV Golf points leader, Joaquin Niemann (+10), and Houston Open winner, Min Woo Lee who finished the weekend on +9.

What About Scottie Scheffler?

Well, quite. Those who may be tuning in for the first time this weekend will surely be looking for the World No.1 on the leaderboard, especially given he was the shortest price of any player pre-tournament to win a major, since Tiger Woods in 2009.

Scheffler did make the cut after threatening not to, and now he’s actually reasonably placed to make a Saturday charge, sitting in T23 at +4. He’s currently only two shots outside the top 10, so there’s a good chance he will be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday, but is that as good as it gets?

Given his unbelievable run, the bookmakers are being very defensive when it comes to Scheffler, and he’s still just 8/1 to win this tournament. If he does, though, this would be some comeback, as I have gone back through every U.S. Open since 1996, and the numbers suggest his race is run.

Webb Simpson was in T29 and six shots back of the 36-hole lead at Olympic Club when he won in 2012, and Brooks Koepka overcame a 5-shot deficit over 36 holes to win at Shinnecock in 2018. The difference with Koepka is that he was already in 4th place at that point, and only had one player to target, with Dustin Johnson spreading the field, sitting four shots clear of the chasing pack and five of Brooks.

Otherwise, 26 of the last 29 U.S. Open winners have been within 2 shots of the lead at halfway, which suggests we don’t need to look much further than Sam Burns (-3), J.J. Spaun (-2), and Viktor Hovland (-1). It’s probably a bit much to whittle it down to just three players with two rounds still to go at this golf course, but certainly you should be focusing on the current top 10 at this stage. Only Matt Fitzpatrick (3 shots back in 2022) joins Koepka and Simpson as U.S. Winners who were more than 2 shots back at halfway since 1996.

Recent History at Oakmont Suggests Sam Burns Will Win

Looking at the two most recent renewals of the U.S. Open at Oakmont, both Angel Cabrera (2007) and Dustin Johnson (2016) held one-shot leads here, heading into the weekend.

By the end of the third round, both Cabrera and Johnson were sitting 4 shots back of the lead, and overcame the same deficit on Sunday. Cabrera had gone from level-par after two rounds, to +6 going into Sunday, sitting four back of Aaron Baddeley, who was sitting at +2, two clear of Tiger Woods.

In 2016, Johnson was -4 after two rounds, and shot a 71 on Saturday, falling to -3. Shane Lowry flew through the pack, shooting a 65 to sit at -7 going into Sunday and four shots clear of both Andrew Landry and Johnson.

So Burns backers shouldn’t lose faith if he takes a step back today. If the last two U.S. Opens here are anything to go by, he can afford a slower round today, provided he stays in the hunt tomorrow.

Burns is the tournament favourite and best-priced at 7/2 to win. Viktor Hovland, who is two back is 11/2, and J.J. Spaun, who splits the two in 2nd place, is 17/2, just bigger than World No.1, Scottie Scheffler, who despite having a mountain to climb is still just 8/1.

With all this in mind and more, let’s see if there’s any value across several betting markets at the halfway stage of the 2025 U.S. Open.

US Open weekend betting tips

Back Viktor Hovland in the 3rd Round Leader Market at 11/2 (LiveScore Bet)

While the 2007 and 2016 renewals here suggest that Sam Burns might fall back slightly today and still win, the stats suggest that Viktor Hovland is the most likely player to step forward and take advantage of that slow round.

In 2007, Aaron Baddeley was two shots back of the halfway leader, Angel Cabrera, but a level-par round on Saturday was enough for him to take a two-shot lead into Sunday.

In 2016, Shane Lowry shot a mesmerizing 65 on Saturday to go from two shots back of Dustin Johnson’s 36-hole lead, to four clear going into Sunday.

Both Baddeley and Lowry were in 3rd place and two shots back, before taking the 54-hole lead, the same position that Hovland finds himself in right now. He is the type of player like Lowry to potentially climb the rankings with a strong round today, while others struggle, and if his putting stroke continues to improve as it did on Friday, a lower round could be on the way.

Hovland is leading the field in SG Tee to Green after two rounds, and also ranks in 2nd place in SG Approach. Hovland is also averaging over 2 shots gained around-the-green, which is typically a part of his game he struggles with. He was the best player in that category in Round 2, gaining 4 shots on the field, but crucially he almost gained 2 shots (+1.95) on the field with his putter on Friday, and he still hit his irons well (+1.24) so it’s not like he was relying on chip-ins all day!

Burns has to be considered the most likely winner at this stage, so while I do like Hovland’s chances of winning, history suggests that a bet in the 3rd Round Leader Market at the same odds makes the most sense.

Bet on Rasmus Hojgaard to Finish Top Danish at 9/5 (Betfred, BetVictor)

Rasmus Hojgaard has made 8 birdies across the first two rounds of his tournament, with 4 on each day. That is eye-catching, with only four players in the field making more than him. 4 birdies in round 1 was 9th best in the field, and the same number on Friday was 11th-best. Surely a repeat performance in Round 3 will keep him in contention in this market.

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is currently the odds-on favourite in this market, but he’s only one shot clear of Hojgaard, and shot +4 on Friday compared to Hojgaard, who shot +3. Maybe the momentum is with the more experienced man at this stage.

Neergaard-Petersen is walking a tight rope as well, having only made four birdies over the first two days. He also has one eagle to his name, but at the moment, he’s only made 5 bogeys, one of the best records in the field. It feels like this could catch up with him fairly quickly, and with two double-bogeys creeping in on the front-nine yesterday, I think he’s due to slip down the leaderboard. With this being just his second major start, the wheels could come off if he doesn’t start well today.

Niklas Norgaard also made the cut and is playing well enough, but given he’s two shots adrift of Hojgaard, I will take the middle man in this market, and hope his winning mentality can see him climb the leaderboard at a tough Oakmont this weekend.