2025 US Open final round betting tips: My top selections on Championship Sunday

Resident TG tipster Tom Jacobs picks out his US Open final round betting tips ahead of Sunday’s decider at Oakmont Country Club.

The last two times the U.S. Open was held here, both Dustin Johnson and Angel Cabrera overcame 4-shot deficits on Sunday to win. The difference was that both of these players also sat in 1st place after 36 holes, and were bouncing back from a poor Saturday.

We don’t have that sort of scenario in this final round, as Sam Burns has led after the past two rounds, and he will take a narrow 1-shot lead into the final round.

Behind him is J.J. Spaun, who led on day one and has been Burns’ closest challenger since. 

Spaun is joined by the more experienced Adam Scott, who shot an impressive 67 yesterday to put himself in contention for a second major title.

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A win at Oakmont would be quite fitting for Scott, who should really have tucked away at least one more major in his career, and grabbing one now at the age of 44, at a course where Angel Cabrera won in 2007 would be quite poetic. It was Cabrera that Scott beat in a playoff at Augusta to claim his first major, and he can now replicate his success here once again.

I’m sitting on the fence with this one. If you had asked me yesterday for my most likely winner it was Viktor Hovland, but he’s now 5 shots back, and 4 shots back of those in T2, so he might just have too much work to do, with at least one of the three ahead of him likely to play decently enough to keep him at arms length.

Burns has converted just one 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour, doing so impressively at the Valspar Championship in 2021, but he’s never had a chance like this in a major and a lot will be dictated with how he copes early. If he settles into the round quickly, you would have to like his chances, given his current form.

Scott trailed Angel Cabrera by one stroke going into the final round of his Masters win, and just like he did yesterday, he shot -3 on moving day to put himself in contention, so he looks in a great position to pounce on any opportunities.

US Open final round betting tips

Rory McIlroy to Finish Inside the Top 40 (11/10)

This might be one of the most boring bets put up today, but if you want something to root for after your Father’s Day lunch, then backing Rory McIlroy to climb the leaderboard on Sunday looks to be of some value.

McIlroy is currently T49 and two shots back of those in a tie for 39th, but there was some reason for encouragement yesterday, notably avoiding a double bogey all day for the first time this week.

On top of keeping the bigger scores on a single hole off his card yesterday, McIlroy continued to drive the ball well, something that’s been his Achilles’ Heel coming into the week. 

The problem instead has been with his irons this week, and while it’s a bit of a tough sell backing a player who isn’t sharp on approach, this is Rory McIlroy we are talking about, and I am sure he can find something for a single round.

McIlroy has struggled since completing the Grand Slam, but it would be no surprise to anyone if he started his round fast today and shot a decent score to climb the leaderboard and finish on a high so that he could take something into next week at the Travelers Championship.

This is a rare “gut-feel” pick, rather than one led by stats, but I feel if there were a “Strokes-Gained: Play Well When the Pressure is Off” stat, Rory would rank highly almost every year.

2-Ball Bets

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (3/4) to Beat Thriston Lawrence

I attempted to take on Neergaard-Petersen in the Top Danish market at halfway, and that was seemingly a terrible idea, as he remained solid on moving day, being one of just 12 players in the field to break par on Saturday.

The Dane ranks 6th in SG Tee to Green, 12th in SG Approach, and 19th in SG Off the Tee this week. In every ball-striking metric, he outranks his playing partner, Thriston Lawrence, who has been admittedly solid enough across the board, but is generally relying on his putter to compile his scores.

There’s no real suggestion that Lawrence can’t put together another good score today, even if driven by the putter, but we have already seen on Friday what happens when he’s just neutral in the ball striking department, as he shot +4 and put a dampener on his outright chances this week.

Rather than targeting a weak player, this is actually a case of backing one of the in-form players to round off a good week, and as Neergaard-Petersen is outplaying Lawrence in every department other than putting, I think this presents a good head-to-head opportunity.

Neeegaard-Petersen ranked 13th in SG Putting yesterday, a huge improvement on ranking 95th and 121st over the first two days. If he can putt that well again today, he could put together another really solid round, but even if he’s closer to neutral on the greens, he’ll have a shot at winning this 2-ball, thanks to his superior ball-striking.

Max Greyserman (21/20) to Beat Christiaan Bezuidenhout 

I have been mightily impressed with Max Greyserman this week, and while it’s not a complete surprise, given we bet him pre-tournament for a more modest top 40, he’s positioned himself really nicely in T11 going into the final round. Hopefully, Greyserman, along with Marc Leishman (also T11), both deliver on our top 40 bets, but for now, it’s the former I’ll back to win their 2-ball today.

Firstly, Greyserman is worth backing in his own merit, as he ranks 11th in SG Tee to Green, ranking inside the top 7 in that category over the last two rounds, after a slower start. His irons haven’t been as sharp as his playing partner Christiaan Bezuidenhout over the course of the week, but the latter was really poor in that category on moving day, and I suspect he might struggle again in the final round.

Bezuidenhout was the second-best putter in the field yesterday, which meant he could shoot a very respectable 71, but given he lost strokes in both approach and tee-to-green on the day, I think he’s potentially due a regression.

Greyserman matched Bezuidenhout’s score yesterday despite losing -1.67 strokes on the green, and that for me means there’s potentially room for a better round again. Given Greyserman has been both longer and more accurate off the tee than Bezuidenhout throughout the week, he looks well placed to edge this one.

We already liked Greyserman pre-event, and I always like taking on players that need a strong short game to survive, which is certainly the case with Bezuidenhout, who ranks almost last (62nd) among those to make the cut, in SG Off the Tee.