Who will pass the Oakmont test? Here are the 20 players that can win the US Open
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It’s the most brutal examination in the sport, so who will be left holding the trophy? We’ve tried to work it out in our US Open Power Rankings…
We had such a blast ranking every player ahead of the Masters that we decided that we wanted to do US Open Power Rankings too.
But there were “only” 95 players teeing up at Augusta, while 156 will tackle an Oakmont test so punishing that even defending Bryson DeChambeau describes it as a course that “doesn’t just challenge your game – it challenges your sanity”.
With that in mind, we’ve decided to narrow it down to the top 20. After all, this is the US Open we’re talking about.
So, with apologies to Adam Scott, Cam Smith, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Harris English, Phil Mickelson, and Sunday’s top two Ryan Fox and Sam Burns, here are our 2025 US Open Power Rankings…
20. Ben Griffin
US Open record: Rookie
Recent form: MC-T46-T8-W-2
A few months ago, I knew more about Peter Griffin than Ben Griffin, but a scorching run of form has catapulted the 29-year-old American into the spotlight – and the world’s top 15. The US Open rookie trails only Scottie Scheffler in recent results. He won his first PGA Tour event at the Zurich Classic (with Andrew Novak), claimed a solo victory at the Charles Schwab, finished T8 at the PGA and runner-up (behind the World No.1) at The Memorial. Oakmont will be a brutal debut test, and his accuracy and scrambling stats don’t scream “contender”, but hot streaks can’t be ignored and behind the shades is one cool customer. RJ
19. Corey Conners
US Open record: MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-T9
Recent form: T49-T11-T19-T25-T27
Conners has more MCs than the Beastie Boys, but he finally broke his US Open curse with a tidy T9 last year. Now the calm Canadian returns with less scar tissue and plenty of game to tackle Oakmont. He’s an elite iron player, steady off the tee, and his Strokes Gained stats are green across the board – perfect for golf’s toughest exam. Recent T11 and T19 finishes hint he’s trending nicely even if he doesn’t scream “major winner in waiting”. If the putter stays warm (and it’s a big if as it’s his weakest point), he could quietly sneak into contention. Emphasis on quietly – he’s Canadian, after all. RJ
18. Keegan Bradley
US Open record: T68-MC-T4-T27-MC-T60-MC-MC-MC-T7-MC-T32
Recent form: MC-T18-T30-T8-T7
There’s a real chance Captain Keegs could end up in his own Ryder Cup team and a big week here would go a long way to booking that spot. His US Open CV is littered with missed weekends, but he has two top 10s – including T7 last year. Oakmont will reward elite ball strikers and Bradley has undoubtedly been one of those this season… but his putting stats make for worrying reading and he missed the cut here in ‘16. None-the-less, he heads in off the back of top 10s at the Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo and has the kind of fearless streak that make him a real danger. The champion, captain and competitor dream could well be alive come the back nine on Sunday. RJ
17. Jordan Spieth
US Open record: T21(LA)-MC-T17-W-T37-T35-MC-T65-MC-T19-T37-MC-T41
Recent form: 4-T34-MC-T36-T7
How long are we going to keep getting away with ranking Spieth so high in these things? The answer is for as long as Alex Perry works for Today’s Golfer… RJ
16. Justin Rose
US Open record: T5-MC-T10-MC-MC-MC-T21-W-T12-T27-MC-MC-T10-T3-MC-MC-T37-MC-MC
Recent form: 2-T42-MC-T44-MC
He’s missed the cut in four of his last five US Opens – including the last two – but don’t read too much into that, because Rosey’s major form blows more hot and cold than a romance on Love Island. In his last nine major starts, it’s been feast or famine: five missed cuts, four top-10s – including a runner-up spot at the 2024 Open and that playoff defeat at Augusta in April. Which Rose shows up at Oakmont is anyone’s guess. But he strikes me as the kind of chap who’d enjoy a bit of symmetry, so I’m plumping for a strong showing to make it five missed cuts and five top-10s in his last 10 majors. RM
15. Brooks Koepka
US Open record: MC-T4-T18-T13-W-W-2-T4-55-T17-T26
Recent form: MC-T30-T17-MC-T33
Remember the Brooks Koepka who used to flick a switch for the majors? The guy who looked borderline unbeatable on golf’s biggest stages, even when his regular-season form was flatlining? Well, it feels like he fell into the Wanamaker Trophy after winning the 2023 PGA Championship and never made it out. His major record since that Oak Hill triumph? T17, T64, T45, T26, T26, T43, MC, MC. That’s not a blip – that’s a pattern. And there’s little in his current form to suggest a comeback’s brewing at Oakmont. He’s logged just two top-10s on LIV this year and ranks outside the top 20 in most of their stat categories: Driving Accuracy (T38), Scrambling (24), Greens in Regulation (32), even Driving Distance (21). If you think those ranks don’t sound too bad, remember there are only 54 players on that tour – and three of them are Frederik Kjettrup, Anthony Kim, and Yubin Jang. RM
14. Viktor Hovland
US Open record: T12(LA)-T13-WD-MC-19-MC
Recent form: T21-T13-T54-T28-T25
Sublime or ridiculous sums up the Norwegian’s form over the last couple of years… and his performances at the US Open. One of the very best ball strikers, his scrambling and putting no longer need a hazmat warning but could still prove his undoing this week. Hovland’s recent performances have been encouraging as he looks to add the major title that looked a case of “when” not “if” when he turned pro in 2019. A key figure in Europe’s 2023 Ryder Cup win, a good week could ensure his spot at Bethpage rather than relying on good faith from Luke Donald. RJ
13. Tyrrell Hatton
US Open record: MC-T6-T21-MC-MC-T56-T27-T26
Recent form: T14-T5-T13-T60-T15
Oakmont demands calm – so Hatton should finish DFL. But here’s the twist: despite the meltdowns, he’s quietly consistent in majors, with just one missed cut since 2021 and a T5 at the PGA. His US Open record is mixed, but a T6 in 2018 shows he can handle the carnage. Oakmont will test his patience (and the bleep button), but his tee-to-green game is sharp, his putting’s improved, and if the tantrums stay in check, he’s a safe bet for the weekend – and maybe more. RJ
12. Sepp Straka
US Open record: T28-MC-MC-T56
Recent form: MC-T13-W-MC-3
Wins at the American Express and the Truist Championship have already made 2025 the best year of the 32-year-old’s career – but not in majors. The Austrian missed the cut at both the Masters and PGA Championship, which doesn’t exactly scream “contender at Oakmont” – especially since he’s never cracked a US Open top-20 and has missed the cut in two of four appearances. Still, he’s third in the Team Europe rankings and a good week here could all but secure what he called his “number one goal” for the year: a second Ryder Cup appearance. RM
11. Joaquin Niemann
US Open record: MC-T23-T31-T47-T32
Recent form: T29-W-T20-T8-W
The best player in the world, if you believe the LIV diehards. The 77th best player in the world, if you ask the Official World Golf Rankings. And the 7th best player in the world, if you prefer a more balanced approach from Data Golf – which is probably the most accurate assessment of the three. When it comes to majors, though, the Chilean is a long way off the world’s best. His T8 at Quail Hollow was the first time he’s ever cracked the top 15 in 24 major appearances. He’s played four US Opens, hasn’t missed a cut, but hasn’t sniffed contention. Still, can you really write off a guy who’s won every other LIV event so far in 2025? Personally, yes. He’s in hot form, but history says he cools off fast at the biggest events. And majors aren’t shotgun starts with Black Eyed Peas blasting around the greens. They’re psychological marathons – never more so than the US Open. And, so far, Niemann looks more cut out for a three-day sprint. RM
Before we get to the top 10, let’s take a look at some trends ahead of Oakmont…
Who’s trending?
Before we get into the top 10, let’s look at some US Open trends going into the 125th edition of golf’s second oldest major…
US Open winner trends
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 31 or younger (Justin Rose was 33 in 2013; Gary Woodland was 34 in 2019)
World ranking: – 9/12 winners were ranked in the top 24 in the World Rankings (Martin Kaymer was 28th in 2014; Wyndham Clark was 32nd in 2023; Bryson DeChambeau was 38th in 2024)
Position after round 1: 11/12 winners were in the top 16 after Round 1 (Brooks Koepka was 46th in 2018)
Position after round 2: 11/12 winners were in the top 5 after Round 2 (Matt Fitzpatrick 13th in 2022)
Position after round 3: 10/12 winners were in the top 2 after Round 3 (Rose was 5th in 2013; Jon Rahm was 6th in 2021)
Career starts: 11/12 winners had at least 120 previous career starts (Jordan Spieth had played 81 in 2017)
Career wins: 10/12 winners had at least 5 previous career wins (Woodland had 3; Clark had 1)
US Open tournament trends
Previous starts: 11/12 winners had played in at least 3 previous US Opens (Clark had 2 previous starts in 2023)
Previous wins: 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous US Open win (Koepka in 2018; DeChambeau in 2024)
Previous top 5s: 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous US Open top 5 finish
Previous top 10s: 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous US Open top 10 finish
Previous best finish: 10/12 winners had finished 17th or higher in a previous US Open (Clark had never made a cut; Woodland’s best previous result was 23rd)
US Open winners’ season trends
Season events: 11/12 winners had played in at least 10 previous events that season (Koepka played 5 in 2018)
Season wins: 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous tournament win that season
Season top 5s: 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous top-5 finish that season, 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous top 5 finishes that season
Season top 10s: 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous top 10 finishes that season (Koepka only had one: a 2nd at the Fort Worth Invitational; Kaymer also had one: victory at The Players in 2014)
Previous event: 10/12 winners finished 37th or higher on their last start before the US Open (Woodland finished T52 at the Memorial in 2019; Rahm WD from the Memorial in 2021)
Right, let’s get into the top 10 of our US Open Power Rankings…
10. Collin Morikawa
US Open record: T35-MC-T4-T5-T14-T14
Recent form: T14-T54-T17-T50-T20
The world No.4 should be a safe bet to make the cut – but to win the thing? I’m not convinced. He’s finished inside the top 14 in each of the last four US Opens, including T4 in 2021 and T5 in 2022, so the track record is solid. But it’s starting to feel like his best golf might already be behind him. After racking up six wins in two years – including the 2020 PGA Championship and 2021 Open – he’s added just one more title: the 2023 Zozo Championship. He’s managed only three top-10s all season, none in his last five starts. Harsh, maybe, for a man who ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour for Driving Accuracy, 6th for Strokes Gained: Approach, and 7th in SG: Overall, but, right now, I’m just not seeing that killer edge. RM
9. Ludvig Aberg
US Open record: T12
Recent form: T54-T60-MC-T16-T13
Sweden’s tastiest export since IKEA meatballs is playing just his seventh major, but you wouldn’t know it from the swagger. A T12 on debut at last year’s US Open, Åberg has already contended at Augusta and looks tailor-made for majors. He’s exceptional off the tee – vital this week – but must improve the approach play and putting stats that have dogged him this season if he is to contend. After a wobble at the Masters and a missed PGA cut, he looked sharp at Memorial. He screams “future major winner” (and catwalk model) and few would look better than Aberg lifting the trophy come Sunday. RJ
8. Justin Thomas
US Open record: MC-T32-T9-T25-MC-T8-T19-T37-MC-MC
Recent form: T36-W-T2-MC-T31
He’s missed the cut at the last two US Opens and didn’t make the weekend at Quail Hollow either. His only top-10 in this event came back in 2020 – and, at this point, that feels like it was a different golfer entirely. A win at the RBC Heritage followed by a T2 at the Truist Championship suggested he’d finally turned the corner – and ended a three-year winless streak. But, just when you think the real JT is back, he misses the cut at the PGA Championship and sleepwalks through The Memorial. He’ll either win it by five or miss the cut by five. RM
7. Tommy Fleetwood
US Open record: T27-4-2-T65-MC-T50-MC-T5-T16
Recent form: 7-T4-T41-T4-T16
It would be quite the statement if the man with the most top 10s on US soil without a win ended that streak at Oakmont. The Englishman has a sneaky-good US Open record (runner-up in 2018, T5 last year) and is the only man to shoot 63 in the final round on two occasions. He arrives in lovely nick (and we don’t just mean those luscious locks) after T4 finishes at both the PGA and Canadian Open and has the patience, precision, and short game to tame such a brutal course. RJ
6. Shane Lowry
US Open record: MC-MC-T9-T2-T46-MC-T28-T43-T65-MC-T20-T19
Recent form: T18-T2-MC-T23-T13
Finished T20 at Los Angeles CC in 2023 and T19 at Pinehurst in 2024 – but they were his first US Open top-20 finishes since 2016. It seems to be the major that suits him least, and it would be a shame for him to win this and turn up for his Royal Portrush rerun off the back of a month-long hangover. RM
5. Xander Schauffele
US Open record: T5-T6-T3-T5-T7-T14-T10-T7
Recent form: T18-T11-T28-T44-T25
Schauffele missed eight weeks with a rib injury at the start of 2025, and while he has been solid enough on his return, he’s yet to fully hit the ground running.
There’s no getting away from the fact that the goalposts have moved for the now two-time major champion to fulfil the promise he had previously shown in golf’s four biggest events. Those two wins came at the PGA Championship and The Open, but it’s the US Open where he’s always been so consistent over the years.
Schauffele finished T5 on debut back in 2017 and has never looked back, adding six more top-10 finishes in his next seven starts. The one blemish on his record since then? A T14 in Brookline in 2022. For those counting, that means in eight starts, Schauffele has never finished outside the top 14 in this event and he has an 87.5% top 10 rate.
All that’s left for Schauffele to do is win this event, and if he does, he will be three-quarters of the way through the Grand Slam, with Augusta the final piece of the puzzle. Do the stats suggest he could do it this week though?
Other than elite iron play, Schauffele has struggled since his return from injury and that is why he’s finished no better than his backdoor T8 at Augusta in 2025. In fact, not only is he not contending, but he’s been a little out of sorts results wise by his own lofty standards, with his T8 at the Masters his only top 10 since the Tour Championship. Injury has meant he’s only made nine starts since then, but he does need to get the ball rolling again, and fast.
He ranks 7th in SG Approach this season, but by almost every other metric, he’s struggling. Schauffele ranks 127th in SG Off the Tee, 104th in SG Around the Green, 41st in SG Tee to Green and, crucially, 141st in SG Putting. The fact he’s even cracking the top 25 at the moment is testament to that iron play, and it’s his lack of accuracy off the tee at the moment that could really hurt him here.
Schauffele ranks 161st in Driving Accuracy which, for context, leaves him some way behind Scottie Scheffler, who is 28th. And while it can’t be the be all and end all, given McIlroy ranks 170th in the same category, he’s not hitting it as far as the World No.2 to make up for it.
He will come good again, but the stats suggest he is some way off his career year in 2024, whether that is all down to his early-season injury and rust, or a little bit of regression as well after winning two majors in quick succession. TJ
4. Rory McIlroy
US Open record: T10-MC-W-MC-T41-T23-T9-MC-MC-MC-T9-T8-T7-T5-2-2
Recent form: T5-W-T7-T47-MC
Heading into the PGA Championship, it felt like McIlroy was going to be the unbeatable one, but that mantle has been handed to Scottie Scheffler once again.
McIlroy has a tough time at Quail Hollow, and a large part of that seemed to be his frustration with the media leaking the news of his non-conforming driver. Still, is there anything in the stats that suggest he’s heading in the wrong direction?
Heading into the Masters, McIlroy ranked 1st in SG Off the Tee, 3rd in SG Tee to Green, 10th in SG Putting, 16th in SG Approach and 1st in SG Total.
He still leads the Off the Tee category alongside Scheffler, and 3rd in SG Tee to Green, but he now ranks 2nd behind Scheffler behind SG Total, and he’s fallen to 39th in SG Approach. The positive is that he now ranks 6th in SG Putting.
Stats-wise, there’s little reason for concern overall, but he was absolutely terrible in Canada and his iron play has certainly dropped off, so he will hope to rectify that quickly in practice. Hear that? That’s the faint, distant noise of alarm bells.
As for McIlroy’s US Open record, he’s already won this tournament once, and he’s finished 9th or better in six straight renewals. The last two years he’s finished runner up to Wyndham Clark and Bryson DeChambeau, and he’s due a second win in this event.
He will need to improve on his performances since the Masters win, but this still looks like a good chance for a second major this season.
McIlroy did miss the cut at Oakmont, the second of three missed cuts in a row in this event from 2015 to 2017, but his recent record in this event suggests we’d be foolish to overlook him, even if slightly out of sorts since becoming a Grand Slam champion. TJ
3. Jon Rahm
US Open record: T23(LA)-MC-MC-T3-T23-W-T12-T10
Recent form: T14-4-T7-T8-T8
While I always felt there was a bit of an overreaction to Rahm’s major performances since joining LIV, he will no doubt be delighted with the fact he was finally in the mix on a Sunday again at the PGA Championship, and he can build on that performance this week.
Regardless of what you think of LIV, it’s hard to argue with Rahm’s record, where he has finished inside the top 10 in every start to date. Even if you downgrade it for field size, a player on the PGA Tour finishing 30th or better 20 regular tour events, winning twice and finishing in the top 3 a further five times is still some achievement. It was fairly baffling then that Rahm finished 45th in the 2024 Masters and missed the cut in the PGA Championship last year. Although he withdrew pre-tournament from the US Open 12 months ago, Rahm did go on to finish T7 at the 2024 Open Championship, then T14 at the 2025 Masters and T8 at the 2025 PGA Championship, where a terrible finish slightly took the shine off what was a promising week.
All this to say that Rahm looks back to his normal self in majors again and as a two-time major champion, he has to be factored in.
The 2021 US Open winner and 2023 Masters champion has four top 12 finishes in seven starts in this event, and finished T23 when the low amateur in 2016 here at Oakmont.
After opening with a round of 76 here almost a decade ago, Rahm closed out the week with rounds of 69-72-70 to threaten the top 20 and that is certainly eye-catching. For context, the champion, Dustin Johnson, shot 69-71-69, in those final three rounds.
Rahm put together a fantastic moving day at the PGA Championship, shooting 67 to put the pressure on Scottie Scheffler, charged by a fantastic ball-striking round where he ranked 2nd Off the Tee, 4th on Approach and 2nd overall for Tee to Green. This will give Rahm the confidence to go again this week, and I suspect he will be involved heavily.
Rahm ranks 1st on LIV for birdies, and in terms of ball striking looks in good shape as he’s 9th in Driving Distance and 14th in Driving Accuracy. And when he does miss greens, he’s recovering well and is 4th in Scrambling – though that clearly isn’t often as he ranks 3rd in Greens in Regulation as well. The 15th in Putting Average is his worst statistical category, and that is just fine, as he averages 1.60 putts, while his Legion XIII teammate, Caleb Surratt, leads the tour in that category at 1.53.
He’ll have to go a long way to match his 2023 season, where he four times, including the Masters, and while it may not be possible to replicate while he’s on LIV, he can at least get in the mix again at one of the big ones to show he’s still one of the players to beat. TJ
2. Scottie Scheffler
US Open record: MC-T27(LA)-MC-T7-T2-3-T41
Recent form: T8-W-W-T4-W
What is there left to say about the World No.1? Firstly, let’s dive into the stats.
Prior to the conclusion of the RBC Canadian Open, Scheffler ranked 1st in four of the six Strokes Gained categories:
SG Total: 1st
SG Approach: 1st
SG Tee to Green: 1st
SG Off the Tee: 1st
SG Around the Green: 43rd
SG Putting: 27th
There are not many chinks in his armour are there? Even when he made a “slow start” to the season, the ball striking was always there, he’s just on another planet again now.
Next, it’s time to look at Scheffler’s US Open record. His first start in this event came when playing here as an amateur in 2016. He was in a tie for 4th after round 1, but went on to miss the cut. He then finished T27 and low amateur in 2017, before another missed weekend in 2019.
In recent years though, he’s improved drastically, finishing 7th, 2nd, 3rd and 41st. Last year’s disappointment aside, he’s been incredibly consistent in this major since turning pro.
In each of his three starts from 2021 to 2023, Scheffler went into Sunday within three shots of the lead. He’s had three chances then to get the job done in the US Open, and he’ll be in the mix again here.
The rough is set to be a huge factor and Oakmont, so Scheffler ranking 28th in Driving Accuracy might be the thing that sets him apart from other elite drivers like Rory McIlory, Bryson DeChambeau, and Xander Schauffele.
Scheffler’s weakest area remains his Around the Green play, but his putting has drastically improved since Augusta, so it looks like he’s ready for his next major win just a month after his last.
I won’t be betting on him at short odds, as the US Open presents too many variables, and Scheffler separates himself when there are fewer at play. I do suspect he’ll be in the hunt for the third leg of his own Grand Slam pursuit though. TJ
1. Bryson DeChambeau
US Open record: MC-T15-MC-T25-T35-W-T26-T56-T20-W
Recent form: T5-T2-W-T2-T4
DeChambeau’s irons have cost him two majors now, but even that concern has been eased by the fact he’s changed them and subsequently finished tied-4th in his most recent LIV appearance.
His driver puts him in major contention almost every time he tees it up, and now he’s looking for a third US Open win. This is his major, and given he already looks the biggest threat to Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in the others, it’s now his time to shine.
He finished an eye-catching T15 here in 2016 when T9 going into the final round, and that was before he’d even won for the first time on the Korn Ferry Tour. Now he’s a two-time major winner, who has won nine times on the PGA Tour, another time on the DP World Tour, and three times on the LIV Tour.
He’s a different beast now, and given he enjoyed it here in 2016, there’s plenty of hope for him again.
He’s gained strokes in all four categories in his last two events, despite a disappointing week with his irons at the Quail Hollow. If he’s figured that out in the last few weeks, he might take some beating.
I don’t envisage a world in which he’s not involved on Sunday, let’s just hope he’s got his irons straightened out and his distance control in check, and he will have a good chance of defending his title. That’s something that’s not been done in this major – or any other major for that matter – since Brooks Koepka did it in 2018. That may not seem that long ago, but Koepka was also the first to win back-to-back US Open’s since Curtis Strange in 1989, so it would be no small feat for DeChambeau were he to lift the trophy again.
If Bryson does win a second US Open in a row, he’d become just the eighth player to do so, and just the seventh to win the event three times or more. TJ
You’ve seen his top 5 in the US Open Power Rankings, but where is our resident betting expert Tom Jacobs looking to make some money at Oakmont? You can see his tips here.
