With 36 holes gone, history dictates that just these 5 players can win the US Open

If you’re planning a weekend punt on the eventual winner of the Oakmont major and his name isn’t on this list, you may as well save the cash.

History and stats showed us that just 19 men had a chance of winning the trophy after the first 18 holes. Now, with 36 holes gone, that number is far lower. Just five still have a hope of hoisting the silverware come Sunday night, and that’s if we’re being generous. So, if you don’t have one of them on your betting slip, you may as well rip it up now.

We’ll also have to break the news (gently) to Scottie Scheffler. The World No.1, who is +4, said “by no means am I out of the tournament,” after a second-round 71 left him seven back. The numbers disagree.

So, how have we worked this out? We dived into the past 30 US Opens to work out the eventual winner’s position and the number of shots they were behind (or ahead) at the halfway stage, as you can see below.

Based on that number crunching, the winner of the US Open has, on average, been within 0.233 shots of the lead and sitting 3.766^th after the cut has been made. Now, no one can be 0.233 shots behind or in position 3.766^th, so let’s be kind and say the winner needs to be within a shot of the leader or inside the top four to have a chance of winning at Oakmont come Sunday.

• Big names who missed the cut
• Tee times for round 3
• Victor Perez makes US Open history

That narrows it down to this lucky group.

If we were to go only by the strokes behind method, only JJ Spaun has a chance of chasing Sam Burns down.

But what hope does Sam Burns have of maintaining his lead through two more rounds? Well, 12 of the last 30 champions have led or been tied for the lead after two rounds, so his odds of victory are 40%.

Spaun had led after round one but may be grateful to be chasing rather than attempting to go wire-to-wire. In 124 previous playings, just seven men have led after all four rounds to win eight tournaments – that’s just 6.45%.

US Open wire-to-wire champions

Going back to the chasing pack across the last 30 years, of the 18 who were trailing but went on to win, eight were just a shot back, and six were two back.

Only five players have come from more than two shots back to win, and only three have come from more than three back. Matt Fitzpatrick trailed by three in 2022, and Brooks Koepka was five back in 2018. Incredibly, both Corey Pavin (1995) and Webb Simpson (2012) went on to lift the trophy from six shots behind with just half of the tournament left.

Even if we went that far, that would only add another 17 to the mix of those who could conceivably still win it.

If we dive into the previous nine playings of the US Open at Oakmont, the majority of winners were inside the top three at this stage, but only two halfway leaders have gone on to seal the deal come Sunday evening (Angel Cabrera led by one in ’07, Ben Hogan led by two in ’53).

In 2016, DJ was just a shot back in a tie for 2nd, but if we delve beyond the most recent result, there is some (slight) Oakmont hope for those further back this year.

Ernie Els was four behind in a tie for 7th in 1994, Larry Nelson bucked all the trends, having seemingly been out of contention at seven shots behind in 1983, while Johnny Miller was tied-3rd and three behind in 1973. Jack Nicklaus was in a tie for 4th and three shots behind in 1962, while Sam Parks Jr was four back in 4th in Oakmont’s second stint as host in 1935, and in its first year in 1927, Tommy Armour came from tied-3^rd and two behind to lift the trophy.

• Xander Schauffele extends incredible run
• Shane Lowry involved in bizarre rules incident
• Why Bryson’s defence was even worse than you thought

Even with Nelson’s incredible comeback, the average number of shots the eventual Oakmont champion has been behind at this stage is 2.33. If we were to round that down to two, only Burns, Spaun, and Hovland have a chance of winning this when the sun sets in Pennsylvania.

We’ll leave you to either celebrate or commiserate over your pre-tournament punts.