What would an 18 handicapper shoot at Oakmont in US Open conditions?

Oakmont is golf’s ultimate test for the world’s best players – but how would average golfers fare under US Open conditions? Pros give their (brutally honest) predictions and we work out how many shots you’d get off your handicap.

Watch the US Open at Oakmont this week and you’ll probably see the world’s best golfers struggle like nowhere else. The length, the rough, the virtually unplayable greens – it all adds up to make Oakmont one of golf’s toughest tests. Most pros would bite your hand off for a round of level par.

But what would a normal golfer shoot at Oakmont in US Open conditions? It’s been one of the big questions doing the rounds in Pennsylvania this week, and many of the players in the US Open field have had their say…

What tour pros think an 18 handicapper would shoot at Oakmont

Bryson DeChambeau: “Probably 100… on the front nine.”

Justin Thomas: “If they finish, it’s got to be 110-120.”

Min Woo Lee: “120. I mean, the greens are so slick and slopey, and the rough is… I mean, we can barely get out of the rough so I think an 18 handicapper wouldn’t be able to get out of the rough. I don’t know if that’s ridiculous or generous, I’m not sure. Hopefully someone can experiment and average it out for us, but it’s a lot.”

Jason Day: “150. Because they would just struggle. I mean, it’s difficult out there. The rough… Most 18 handicappers typically don’t have the greatest control off the tee box; they’re probably hitting this wipey cut into the right rough. Then they’ve got no knowledge of how to hit the angle of attack on some of these, so they’re hitting these shots that are coming out way left, so they’re going to be beaming the ball across back and forth. 150 I feel like is very, very good for an 18 marker. I mean legit 18 marker. 150 I think is pretty solid.”

Laurie Canter: “I’m not trying to wind people up, right, but it will… I’m certain they wouldn’t finish. I’m not trying to be facetious and wind people up, but if they had to hit every golf shot, and they’re going out with 12 balls, I don’t know an 18 handicapper that finishes.”

Justin Rose: “18 handicapper? Man. No ball spotter? Better bring a few dozen balls. Probably 140 – it has to be. And that’s just playing conservative, bunting it in front of them – 50 yards, 50 yards, 50 yards, 50 yards. It’s got to be plenty.”

Tommy Fleetwood: “I don’t know… a lot! I don’t want to put a number on those guys. I’m not putting any pressure on anybody, but it would be a lot. My dad actually plays off 18 and I wouldn’t be backing him to shoot a great score.”

Jordan Smith: “I am going to say 110… actually, no, 120. It’s just the rough. The guys are going to struggle. They won’t hit it that far. They’ll be miles from the green, in the rough – they’ll be in the rough all day. And then on these greens, I mean it’s tough for me! It’s tough for all of us. It would be interesting to see what they actually shot, but I reckon between 110-120.”

The consensus is that an 18 handicapper would shoot well over 100, if they even managed to finish the round.

Perhaps you’re a better golfer than that, fancying your chances to do well at Oakmont? If so, Michael Kim has a reality check for you: “A scratch golfer might not break 90, to be honest,” he says.

So the pros clearly think amateurs don’t stand a chance at Oakmont. But what do the numbers say? Let’s plug some numbers into the USGA’s system and see how generous (or naive) it might be.

How many shots would you get off your handicap at Oakmont?

The USGA Course Handicap Calculator converts your Handicap Index into a Course Handicap based on the difficulty of the course you’re playing.

Oakmont has a Course Rating of 77.5 and a Slope Rating of 150. In normal circumstances it’s a par 71, but for the US Open that’s reduced to a par 70.

So what does the USGA say about your chances? Here’s how handicaps translate at Oakmont…

So the USGA Course Handicap Calculator has more faith in amateur golfers than tour pros do. But the rating of Oakmont was almost certainly done based on ‘normal’ conditions, rather than the borderline sadistic ones the USGA create for the US Open. With the rough as juicy and the greens as firm as they will be this week, there probably isn’t a Slope Rating that would do it justice. Even as it is, you’re getting more shots at Oakmont than you’d get at Augusta National.

I’d love to see some normal golfers try their best at Oakmont in US Open conditions, and I’m not alone. Justin Thomas says: “So much talk about ‘What would X handicap shoot at Oakmont?’… Why don’t we find a way to make it happen? Have a 5, 10, 18, whatever handicap play Monday after the US Open. Back tees, full rules of golf, and see what happens? May have to let a few groups through and allow for 6-7 hours but I think we’re all here for it, no?”

We are indeed. Any brave 18-handicap volunteers out there? Just remember to bring extra balls. And maybe a therapist.

• How many shots would you get off your handicap at Augusta National? The answer might shock you

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