2025 PGA Championship specials: My favorite first round Quail Hollow betting tips
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Tom Jacobs has picked his potential Quail Hollow winners, now he’s turning his attention to some PGA Championship specials.
Now that you’ve seen my outright picks for the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow this week, I thought I’d share some alternative market specials that have really caught my eye.
PGA Championship specials: First Round
There are a couple of different things to consider in the first round of any event, and that’s who you think can lead after round 1, and whether there are any groups to target in the 3-ball betting.
The First Round Leader market is always one that is viewed as volatile, but I remain steadfast in my belief that there is method to the madness in that market, while the PGA Championship is arguably the best event from a 3-ball betting perspective.
With 20 club professionals to pick on in the opening two rounds, 19 if you exclude the legendary Michael Block, it’s a good way to get enhanced odds on what might come down to a 2-ball rather than three, where the third player is a club pro.
Without further ado, here is my view on the opening round.
First Round Leader Picks
Scottie Scheffler 16/1 e/w (6 Places SpreadEx)
While I find Scheffler easier to pass up in the outright market than Rory McIroy, and in particular, Bryson DeChambeau, I’m not as confident overlooking him in the first round leader market.
More than that, I think he’s a very worthwhile bet to sit inside the top 6 after round 1 of a major championship for the 8th time since 2020.
Three times he’s been inside the top 6 at the Masters after round 1, and he’s also been inside the top 3 twice after round 1 of this very tournament. The other top 6 came in the Open Championship.
In 2020, he opened with a 66 to sit one shot back of the first round lead of this event, and he found himself in a similar position in 2023, again just one shot back, but in 2nd place.
That’s twice then he’s had a chance to lead after round 1 in just five PGA Championship starts, and in his last four PGA Tour starts, he has sat 14th, 2nd, 2nd, and 1st after round 1.
The only handicap is the fact he’s not played this course before, but that shouldn’t stop the World No.1, who has a favourable morning tee time. If it’s not him, it might be one of his playing partners, Rory McIlroy or Xander Schauffele, who claim the top spot on day one.
Scheffler ranks 2nd behind our next pick in Round 1 Scoring Average this season…
Keith Mitchell 80/1 e/w (5 Places bet365)
This might be the most obvious bet you’ll see this week.
Over his last six PGA Tour starts, Mitchell has been 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 28th, and 1st by the end of play on Thursday. That means in three of those six starts, this has been a winning bet, and on two other occasions, you have received a full each-way payout. That alone would make him a good bet at 80/1, but he also loves this course as well.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Mitchell loves this course, given his ability off the tee, and in his four starts here, he has finished 34th, 8th, 3rd, and 59th. More importantly, though, he’s been 2nd, 8th, 4th, and 25th after round 1. Twice then, he would have landed you each way money at this course, and while this is a major and perhaps a different kettle of fish, I can’t ignore the best Thursday player in the world at such big odds.
Mitchell averages 64.17 in round 1 over his last six starts, and a 64 would put him right in the mix for another first round lead this week. He tees off in the afternoon, but that won’t faze Killa’ Keith.
Stephan Jaeger 100/1 e/w (BetMGM, UniBet 7 Places)
Stephan Jaeger is a very solid PGA Tour player who can’t quite reach the next level, despite beating Scottie Scheffler when winning for the first time on the PGA Tour. With that said, he’s always been a player who has impressed on Thursday, and that can continue here.
Three times Jaeger has led/co-led after round 1 on the PGA Tour, twice at the Valspar and once at the Corales, and on five occasions he held at least a share of the lead on the Korn Ferry Tour.
In his last six PGA Tour starts, Jaeger has sat 1st (Valspar), 59th, 27th, 10th, 4th, and 11th after round 1, and he can carry that form on here, in an event where he was 10th after 54 holes three years ago. The latter is important as it suggests he could be comfortable in a major setup this week.
Taylor Moore 125/1 e/w (BetMGM, UniBet 7 Places)
Taylor Moore wouldn’t be the first name that springs to mind for bettors this week, but he is one of the first players out on the course on Thursday, teeing it up in the second group at 7:11 am.
His early tee time is a huge factor in betting him this week, as Moore will get the best of the conditions, with calm weather and a soft golf course, but he’s also got some encouraging history at this course.
Moore has finished 27th and 38th in two starts here, but the biggest sign that he’s worth betting in this market is the fact that he’s been 2nd and 5th after round one in those two starts. This will be a different course setup to the one he plays at the Wells Fargo, but he’s a big enough hitter, ranking 27th in Driving Distance and a pleasing 13th in SG Off the Tee, to suggest he can cope with the PGA Championship setup. Crucially, he was also 12th after round 1 of this tournament last year as well, which is a bonus.
A decent first round player over the years, having held a share of the first round lead at both the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic and the 2024 Houston Open, while also holding the outright lead on day 1 of the ZOZO Championship. He was also 2nd and just one shot back at this course 12 months ago, the same position he found himself in earlier this year at the Phoenix Open, so he enjoys the opening round. This isn’t new, he also held three first round leads on the Korn Ferry Tour as well.
He’s not quite Keith Mitchell, but who is?
First Round 3-Ball Bets
Keith Mitchell (8/13 bet365) to beat Adam Hadwin and Bob Sowards
As covered above, Keith Mitchell is the best Thursday player in the world right now, ranking 1st on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average.
Adam Hadwin ranks 136th in that category and has struggled for form since finishing T9 at the Phoenix Open, finishing no better than 39th as an individual (12th in the Zurich).
Bob Sowards might struggle to win your Monthly Medal and is 0/7 at the PGA Championship, despite finishing in the top 10 at the John Deere Classic once upon a time.
Bet on Keith Mitchell with confidence here.
Kurt Kitayama (1/1 bet365) to beat Alex Noren and Nic Ishee
This three-ball looks interesting as Kurt Kitayama pegs it up with Alex Noren, who made his first start since early October last week at the Truist Championship, and Nic Ishee, who is one of the 20 club professionals.
Ishee has played in one PGA Championship before, and opened with rounds of 78 and 75 to miss the cut. Given that he is a part-time golfer, we can overlook him.
Then it comes down to Noren. The Swede will likely be pleasantly surprised with his efforts last week, sitting in 15th place after two rounds before falling away over the weekend, but a major is a different beast, especially when making just your second start since October.
Noren did finish 12th in this event 12 months ago, but he’s otherwise been pretty poor in this event, missing the cut in 4 of his 11 starts before that, and finishing no better than 22nd in that span.
Kitayama, on the other hand, has finished 4th and 26th in this tournament over the past two years, sitting inside the top 18 after round 1 both times. If he can repeat that this week, he’ll have a great chance of winning this three-ball.
A return to form for Kitayama last time out was certainly welcome, as he finished 5th at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, posting four rounds of 68 or better. This is as much about taking on Noren and Ishee as it is backing Kitayama, but it’s a good sign that he played so well last time and enjoys this major on the whole.
Ryo Hisatsune (5/4) to beat J.T. Poston and Tom Johnson
Ryo Hisatsune has never played at Quail Hollow, but J.T. Poston has, badly. In five starts at this course, Poston has missed three cuts, and when he has made the weekend, he’s finished 29th and 60th, so it’s clearly not his favourite course.
Not only does Poston struggle in general here, he’s always been a slow starter at this course too, sitting outside the top 100 of the leaderboard in three of those five Wells Fargo Championship starts and no better than 49th.
Hisatsune finished 18th in this major last year, and has generally been pretty good this season, and while Poston has also been solid, making 12 straight cuts, this is not a course, or a major he enjoys. I’ll take the 5/4 that Hisatsune beats Poston over 18 holes on Thursday.
Oh yeah, Tom Johnson. He’s making his PGA Championship debut at the ripe age of 43, and peaked as an All-American at Northwestern, where he was teammates with Captain Luke Donald.
Johnson in fairness, has at least made back-to-back cuts at the Fortinet/Procore Championship over the past two years, but this is very different, and it should come down to a shootout between Hisatsune and Poston.
PGA Championship: Alternative markets
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra to finish inside the top 40 (10/3 BetMGM, Unibet)
If you are a regular reader of my tips here at Today’s Golfer, firstly, sorry, but secondly, you will notice I am pretty high on Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra. The once star amateur was likely on a fast track to the PGA Tour, but instead opted to join LIV, where during his time he won on that tour in his first six events, and then added an Asian Tour win a year later in 2023. A reported fallout with his team meant there was no place for him on LIV in 2025, but it didn’t take him long to regroup.
Playing on a sponsor’s invite, Lopez-Chacarra won the Hero Indian Open, and his form dating back to the Andalucia Masters last October is pretty solid! Since finishing 28th at home, he has finished no worse than 20th in 8 starts across the Asian and DP World Tour, finishing inside the top 6 in five of those events, including the win.
While we don’t have any history on him in the majors, missing the cut in his only major start (the 2024 U.S. Open), I am so very high on him that I think he’s destined to first make the PGA Tour this season, and then quickly make an impact there. I was honestly pretty close to betting him outright and might still at long odds, but while I am not 100% convinced he can win this sort of event yet, I am certain he can make the weekend and make a run at the top 40.
At 10/3, I think we are getting good value on a player a lot of people are still yet to fully catch onto.
Will Zalatoris to Miss the Cut (6/4 BetMGM, Unibet)
No one likes to bet on a negative… Well, I do, but it does take a certain individual to focus on the miss the cut market, and straight away the first thing I thought to check was Will Zalatoris’ price.
At 6/4, his odds imply there is a 40% chance of him missing the cut, and I really think it’s more likely to happen than that.
After missing the cut at Augusta, Zalatoris’ miss cut streak now sits at three in major championships, as his 43rd place finish in this event last year was the last time he made the weekend in one of golf’s four biggest events.
Brutally hampered by injuries, Zalatoris has really struggled to make any sort of impact on the PGA Tour since finishing 9th at Augusta last year, let alone making a run at the majors. This isn’t what we are used to from Zalatoris, who finished runner-up in three of his first seven majors, including his Masters debut – but it might be the new reality, at least for now.
Since finishing T9 at the 2024 Masters, Zalatoris has finished T43-MC-MC-MC in the biggest championships, and there’s very little reason to believe the tide will change here.
His current form also reads 47-MC-54-54 since finishing 30th at the Players, and while there has been the odd positive round, including a 64 at the Heritage, he’s not in the major-contending form he once was. When finishing 9th at Augusta last year, he was coming in having finished 2nd at Riviera and 4th at Bay Hill, and he’s not had a top 10 in well over a year now, which is different for him. In 2022, he was one of the best players in the world, in 2025, he’s unfortunately not – such are the effects of his injury.
The final nail for me was his course form, which saw him miss the cut on debut at the Wells Fargo before finishing 60th in a 68-man field last year, largely due to a final-round 80. The signs are bad for Zalatoris, and while he’s talented enough to break this sort of form, his drop-off in ball speed from 2021-2022 has severely impacted his chances to compete, and as much as it pains me to say, I think he’s in for a tough week.
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Tom Jacobs picks out his top PGA Championship specials.
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Keith Mitchell could be a dark horse this week.
