Why we can rule 137 players OUT of winning the PGA Championship

We’ve crunched the numbers – and, with just one round gone, it’s already looking like curtains for 88% of the field at the PGA Championship. Including some huge names…

If there’s one thing we love here at TG Towers, it’s using history to try and work out who will win a major. And although Rory McIlroy showed us up at the Masters, you’ll be pleased to know it hasn’t deterred us as we move onto the PGA Championship.

So who will be hoisting that giant Wanamaker Trophy into the North Carolina sky on Sunday evening? We’ve punched a load of numbers from the record books into a spreadsheet in a bid to narrow down the options.

Now, we’ve only gone back 30 years, because anything before that feels a bit too out of touch. (Also, it’s just so many numbers.) There might be an argument to shrink the sample size to 20, or maybe even 10, but frankly the data doesn’t change much between them. So let’s stick with it.

And, before you @ me, remember, it’s just a bit of fun.

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What do the 30-year trends look like?

Since Steve Elkington broke Colin Montgomerie’s heart at Riviera in 1995, the eventual champion has been, on average, inside the top 15 and within 3 shots off the lead.

Let’s have a look at that table we’ve been teasing, shall we?

Can anyone buck the trend?

Of course they can.

As you can see, there have been a few who have come from way back.

In the last eight years alone, you might remember Justin Thomas recovering from 44th to win at Southern Hills, or Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa coming from 33rd to triumph at at Bellerive and Harding Park respectively, while Koepka did it again at Oak Hill in ’23, that time from 38th.

Crucially, though, all were within 6 of the lead through 18 holes.

In fact, when you extend that back out the whole 30 years, only Keegan Bradley – on his major championship debut in 2011 – has come back from more.

• LIV Golf leaderboard from the PGA Championship

• You won’t believe how much time this major champion spends on the driving range

So who can we effectively rule out?

Jhonattan Vegas finishing with 5 birdies in his last 6 holes to reach 7-under-par and lead by 2 has done some serious damage to the hopes of some pretty big names.

So I’m willing to keep the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland and Adam Scott – 5 back at 2-under – as well as Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg – 6 back at 1-under – in the mix. But that’s just because, like most golf fans, we want the strongest leaderboard possible moving into the weekend.

But then I have to start being ruthless. So kiss goodbye to your hopes of seeing Bryson DeChambeau catching up, or Rory McIlroy go back-to-back, or Jordan Spieth joining him in the Grand Slam club.

Or, indeed, any of these other Quail Hollow pretenders lift the Wanamaker on Sunday…

It also looks like Koepka will miss the cut at the PGA Championship for the first time in his career, while Sergio Garcia is not doing his Ryder Cup hopes any good – despite captain Luke Donald all but opening the door for the Spaniard the other day.

Come on then – where’s the winner coming from?

I am, however, sticking to the trends here. Anyone inside the top 15 or 3 off the lead is in.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2025 PGA champion is one of these 19…

Who’s your money on?