The stats that show Europe have won the Ryder Cup already

Europe’s fast start at Bethpage Black might feel premature to celebrate, but history says it’s already game over for Team USA.

Yes, it’s early. Yes, it’s risky to get carried away. And yes, anything can happen in a Ryder Cup. But after Europe dominated the Friday morning foursomes at Bethpage Black to take a 3-1 lead, and then finished the day 5.5–2.5 up, the numbers don’t make good reading for Keegan Bradley’s American team.

Exhibit 1: History on their side

Dating back to 1991, teams that earned at least three points out of four in the first session of a Ryder Cup have a record of seven wins and just one defeat. The one that bucked the trend? Paris 2018, when the US won the morning fourballs 3-1 but Europe quickly made amends by taking a 4-0 clean sweep of the afternoon foursomes. They went on to win 17.5 – 10.5 at Le Golf National – something Bradley will be clinging to as his side seek to buck this historical trend.

Exhibit 2: Win the first foursomes, win the Ryder Cup

The last five Ryder Cups have been won by the team that wins the foursomes on the opening day.

Exhibit 3: We’ve been here once before….

Prior to this year, Europe hadn’t won an opening session on American soil since 2004. That year, they didn’t just win, they demolished the Americans 18.5 – 9.5. It was the biggest European win in Ryder Cup history, and the most dominant margin by either side since 1981, when Team USA won by the same score. Oh, and the score after day one that year? 5.5 – 2.5.

Exhibit 4: When Europe start fast, they don’t slow down

When Europe take the lead after day one, they don’t tend to let it slip. Here’s what happened the last six times Europe led after the first day of a Ryder Cup:

2002: Won by 3

2004: Won by 9

2006: Won by 5

2014: Won by 5

2018: Won by 7

2023: Won by 5

2025: Won by…

The bottom line

We’re only one day in, so it’s far from over, but the message is clear: the Americans have their work cut out if they’re to avoid being the first home team to lose a Ryder Cup since 2012.

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