2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting tips: Our expert’s top picks at TPC Craig Ranch

Tom Jacobs picks out his top CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour event.

The 2025 PGA Tour season heads West to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

The tournament is the leading fundraiser for charity on the PGA Tour and, since 1968, has raised over $190 million to date for Momentous Institute, established by the Salesmanship Club of Dallas, dedicated to supporting the mental health of children, families, and communities.

Last year saw Canadian Taylor Pendrith claim a first PGA tour win, edging out Ben Kohles by a stroke on 23-under to secure the $1.71m winner’s cheque.

Before jumping into my CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting tips, here’s everything else you need to know…

CJ Cup Byron Nelson key details

Venue: TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas (Par 72 – 7,468 yards)

Format: 72-hole strokeplay with a 36-hole cut

Purse: $9.9 million

FedEx Cup points: 500

Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (11/5)

Defending champion: Taylor Pendrith (CAN), -23

Most wins: Tom Watson (USA), 4

• Golf World Top 100 Courses in the USA

How to watch the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

US viewers can catch all the action on the Golf Channel.

All times EDT

Thursday, May 01: The Golf Channel, 15.00
Friday, May 02: The Golf Channel, 15.00
Saturday, May 03: The Golf Channel, 12.00
Sunday, May 04: The Golf Channel, 12.00

UK viewers can catch all the action on Sky Sports Golf.

All times BST

Thursday, May 01: Sky Sports Golf, 21.00
Friday, May 02: Sky Sports Golf, 21.00
Saturday, May 03: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00
Sunday, May 04: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00

CJ Cup Byron Nelson tee times

Tee times and groupings can be found here.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting tips

The Banker: Mackenzie Hughes

33/1 e/w (Ladbrokes/Coral 10 Places)

While many will be looking for the longer hitter this week, and rightfully so, there is still plenty of optimism for those who can go low by way of their short game, and that is generally how Mackenzie Hughes gets it done. 

I say typically, because in recent weeks it has been Hughes’ long game that’s spearheaded his good form, and his putter has let him down for much of 2025. We are now seeing that excellent putting stroke return, as the Canadian has gained strokes on the greens in three straight events, getting better each time. He now returns to a course he’s also gained plenty of strokes putting over the past two years and if that continues, he’s a contender for sure.

Earlier in the season, Hughes’ form was certainly hidden by some poor finishes, but there were some very encouraging rounds, and now he’s finished 10th and 3rd in his last two weeks, suggesting it’s potential form no more and he’s ready to go full tilt.

22nd at Bay Hill, a long, tough driving course was perhaps the catalyst for this recent run, and he was inside the top-20 there all week until the very end. Still, a top-25 was encouraging, and he’s since followed that with a 36th at the Valspar, where he bounced back strongly from an opening 75, a 10th in Houston, another big golf course, where he closed with three straight 66s, and finally 3rd at the RBC Heritage in an elevated event last time out. 

Hughes has ranked 5th in SG Tee to Green in back-to-back start now, notably gaining strokes in three straight events off the tee as well, so the stats suggest he can contend at a course he hasn’t quite fulfilled his potential at as of yet.

A missed cut on debut after sitting 25th after round 1, Hughes returned in 2023, opening with rounds of 65 and 64 to sit 2nd at halfway, eventually finishing 14th. A 64 and two 65s were eye-catching that year, and in 2024 he posted two 64s again, despite finishing 41st.

Clearly the scoring potential is there for Hughes, who is now in form, and perhaps more excitingly for me, has a win, two 2nd-place finishes and a 5th at the RSM, and another 2nd at the Honda Classic, two events that have thrown up some correlation with this one since the move to TPC Craig Ranch.

The Banker: Keith Mitchell – WITHDREW PRIOR TO TOURNAMENT

33/1 e/w (Sky Bet 6 Places)

NOTE: Keith Mitchell was my original banker, but withdrew before the tournament started. Here’s why I picked him…

Mitchell should enjoy the opportunity to open his shoulders up here at TPC Craig Ranch, as he has shown in spurts over the years here.

He finished 20th here last year, his best of three efforts, but he was also inside the top 5 after two rounds, suggesting he might have finally found the formula.

Opening with rounds of 66-65, Mitchell put himself bang in contention only to drop away over the weekend 12 months ago. That was however his best effort so far, and the 65 he shot on Friday was his lowest round here so far.

Heading into the Zurich last week, Mitchell had finished 18th in Houston, where he led after round 1 and was inside the top 10 for the first three rounds, 12th at the Texas Open where he was inside the top 4 for the first three rounds, and then 2nd at the Corales. This form, particularly the first two that also came in Texas, suggests he is in line for another big week.

Mitchell has only won once on the PGA Tour, but it came out the Honda Classic, an event that has thrown up plenty of crossover since we moved here to TPC Craig Ranch, and a case that was strengthened by Alex Noren and Byeong Hun An’s top 4s last year. Both had finished inside the top 5 at the Honda Classic on multiple occasions, and while they are very different events, it’s hard to ignore the correlation between the two events, even if it’s more to do with field strength than anything else.

Ultimately, Mitchell has threatened to win in each of his last three individual starts and hasn’t been able to hold on, but this event, where he can just put the hammer down and focus on making birdies, might be the place for him to break through again.

Mitchell ranks 9th in Scoring Average and 18th in Birdie Average over the past three months on the PGA Tour, which should set him up for success here.

The Outsider: Jake Knapp

60/1 e/w (General 6 Places)

Jake Knapp is playing some great golf this season, and just like week partnered up with Frankie Capan to finish 3rd at the Zurich Classic. This adds to individual finishes of 6th at the Cognizant Classic, where he led for the first three rounds, 12th at The Players where he was inside the top-10 on both Friday and Saturday, and 17th at the Genesis Invitational where he was inside the top-10 for the first two rounds as well.

He has missed two cuts in his last three individual starts, which is what is keeping his price somewhat attractive, but I am not too concerned as I like his profile for this course in particular.

Two of his top-5 best finishes on the PGA Tour have come at PGA National for the Cognizant Classic, and this is a course that I think provides plenty of crossover as mentioned earlier. I don’t think this is the perfect course correlation and may be due to the level of player in each event, but I do like other courses that Knapp has played well at, as well as his effort here last year.

Knapp made his debut in this event last year, finishing 8th, and that was actually a disappointing finish in the end given he was 2nd after rounds 1 and 3, and sitting in 1st at the halfway mark.

An exposed course that yields a ton of birdies but can be susceptible to wind sounds a lot like the Mexico Open, where Knapp picked up his maiden PGA Tour title, and with that and his 8th place finish here last year mind, I am willing to bet Knapp can rediscover the form he was showing before his recent missed cuts, especially as he ranks 2nd in Birdie Average on the PGA Tour over the past three months, with only Norgaard Moller ahead of him, who has played almost half the amount of rounds.

The Long Shot: Davis Riley

90/1 e/w (Bet365 8 Place Market)

Davis Riley looks rejuvenated and I expect him to challenge again here in Texas, where he’s already won. This is something of a home event for Riley who lives 45 minutes down the road in Dallas, and given he’s already won the Charles Schwab Challenge in Forth Worth, we should be confident in his performances in the Lone Star State.

For further evidence that he’ll enjoy playing TPC Craig Ranch this week, you only need to look at his course form, as he finished 9th on debut and 30th last year. He did miss the cut in 2023 but he had just missed the cut a week after winning the Zurich and had the PGA Championship to focus on, so you can understand.

Riley finished 9th here on debut despite opening with a 72, bouncing back with two rounds of 64, before closing out with a 67. It was a similar story last year as well, as he opened with rounds if 64 and 67 to sit 2nd and 5th after rounds 1 and 2 respectively, before he week was derailed by a Saturday 72. He bounced back with a 67 to secure a decent finish, but it was certainly a case of what could have been.

Last year’s hot start and 30th place finish came amidst a run of three missed cuts in his past four individual starts, and this time he comes in having finished 21st at the Masters, 52nd in Houston, 7th at the Valspar, 38th at The Players, and 6th in Puerto Rico in his past five starts.

I expect Riley to make a strong start this week as he’s ranked inside the top-6 for SG Approach in two of his past three solo starts, while also leading the field in SG Tee to Green at the Valspar. It will then come down to how he reacts over the weekend, but given his recent run and last year’s win in Texas fresh in the memory, we should be confident now that he’s in form again.

Bonus Pick: Alejandro Tosti

70/1 e/w (Ladbrokes/Coral 10 Places)

This pick is fairly simple. Tosti has finished 5th, 12th, and 2nd in his last three individual starts, has ranked 2nd and 1st in SG Tee to Green in his last two Strokes Gained-measured starts, and 6th and 16th in Approach in those same two events. The one event where we don’t have Strokes Gained data is at the Corales where he finished 2nd last time out.

A lover of wide-open, low-scoring events (see two 10th-place finishes at the Mexico Open) and big driving golf courses in Texas (see 2nd and 5th-place finishes in Houston) and you have a golfer who is very hard to ignore, especially as it seems he’s improving beyond expectation.

Tosti has always been considered a threat in these low-scoring events, where some of the best stars are absence, simply because of his power off the tee, but now that he’s added some consistency to his game, he looks a real prospect, even if he’s already approaching 30.

2nd and 5th in Houston, 12th at the Valero, and 17th at Colonial, Tosti has generally reserved his best golf for the Lone Star State, with these four finishes making up his 12 best efforts according to OWGR.

He failed to make the cut here last year, but he looks a better player now and will be brimming with confidence after contending at the Corales. He has everything but the course form, and I think that’s more than accounted for with this odds this week.