2025 PGA Championship final round betting tips: My Sunday selections at Quail Hollow
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Resident tipster Tom Jacobs offers his PGA Championship final round betting tips as we edge toward finding out whether Scottie Scheffler lifts the Wanamaker Trophy.
The PGA Championship is Scottie Scheffler’s to lose as we head into the final round of the season’s second major at Quail Hollow Golf Club. The bad news for the chasing back is that the World No.1 rarely does when leading through 54 holes.
The two-time Masters champion holds a commanding three-shot lead in the race for the Wanamaker Trophy, with his nearest challenger, Alex Noren, playing just his 8th round since the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship back in October. It’s mightily impressive what Noren has managed to achieve, and there’s no saying he will struggle today, but this is also a position he’s not used to, and Scheffler will appreciate not having to directly fend off the likes of Jon Rahm or Bryson DeChambeau on the final day.
Talking of DeChambeau, our pre-event selection took the lead temporarily in the third round, and at one point he was two clear of Scheffler. Then disaster struck, and he finished double-bogey, bogey, while Scheffler finished with an eagle and three birdies across his final five holes. It looks like Bryson’s race is run, as his irons simply haven’t been good enough again, but if he can sort out that approach play by the US Open, then the rest of the field is in trouble… We might be on a break for a while, though.
Who Can Stop Scottie Scheffler?
Scottie. The two-time Masters winner would truly have to beat himself today to lose. That’s not to say that can’t happen, but it feels like the most likely challengers in Rahm and DeChambeau are too far back, and Noren would have to do two things he’s never done before – win in America and win a major. That is not a good spot to be in when giving up three shots to Scheffler, as much as European fans would love to see it.
Mito Pereira had a three-shot lead in 2022 and lost the event on the final hole, but before that, you have to go back to Nick Watney (2010) and Justin Leonard (2002) for the last two players who had three-shot leads going into the final round of the PGA Championship and didn’t lift the Wanamaker Trophy…
Dustin Johnson (one-shot lead in 2020), Kevin Kisner (one-shot lead in 2017) and Jim Furyk (2013) all gave up outright 54-hole leads in recent history, but the likes of Brooks Koepka (three times), Rory McIlroy, Jimmy Walker, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, and most recently Xander Schauffele all converted from this position in this championship.
Justin Thomas overcame two and seven-shot deficits to claim his 2017 and 2022 PGA Championship titles, respectively, and Morikawa also made up two shots in 2020, but nine of the last 13 PGA Championship winners held at least a share of the lead going into the final round. It seems unlikely Scheffler will be in the minority and throw a 54-hole lead away, as he’s 9/15 when trying to convert a 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour, converting each of his last five when you include the 2024 Tour Championship.
With all this in mind, I will not be recommending any outright selections to pip Scheffler to the title this evening.
PGA Championship final round betting tips
While I accept defeat for Jon Rahm, there are a few bets I do like, including one Top Nationality bet and a group of three-ball selections.
Jon Rahm to finish Top European (17/10 Betfair/Paddy Power)
Full respect to Alex Noren for the work he’s put in this week, particularly yesterday when he was so brilliant on moving day, but with a slender lead over Rahm in this market, I will back the latter, who seems determined to make a run.
The two-shot buffer for Alex Noren could evaporate in one hole today, and while this is more about backing Jon Rahm to push Scottie Scheffler as hard as he can, as opposed to backing against Noren, I think the idea of Rahm climbing and Noren sliding is a strong possibility.
It’s the 68th time in his career that Jon Rahm has entered the final round of a tournament inside the top five, and 82.4% of the time, he stays there. If you focus solely on his PGA Tour performances, he’s been in this position 39 times and 74.4% of the time, he stays inside the top five. Of those six instances where he’s fallen out of the top five, one was a withdrawal at the Memorial due to a positive COVID test, and only one has come in a major, when he was one back of the 54-hole lead at the 2022 US Open but could only finish 12th.
He’s only one shot ahead of Matt Fitzpatrick and Matthieu Pavon and two shots clear of Matt Wallace, but I do believe he will be the European to step up today, and expect him to leapfrog the unquestionably impressive Alex Noren. A top-five finish might be enough for him to win in this market, and I am backing him to at least hold his position, and think it’s more likely he will improve.
PGA Championship final round: Two-Ball Selections
Here are my two-ball selections, which I will be combining in multiples as well as backing as singles.
Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Luke Donald (8/13 William Hill)
After an excellent first half of the tournament, Ryder Cup Captain Luke Donald finally showed a chink in his armour yesterday, and it’s now time to take him on.
Donald tied with Beau Hossler on Saturday and beat Corey Conners, but another round on, it’s hard to see him winning this bet again, this time against Thorbjorn Olesen, who hit the ball nicely on moving day, and was only hampered by his putter.
Olesen has been good in the final round this season, breaking 70 on four-straight Sundays, helping him to 5th, 29th, and 7th place finishes in his last three solo events on the PGA Tour. When he’s made the cut on the PGA Tour, he’s generally played well this season, and that’s why he ranks 11th in Round 4 scoring average.
Better suited than Donald to play well here at Quail Hollow, Olesen will be keen to put on a show for the Captain in the hope of catching his eye for a potential Ryder Cup spot, and while this could have a negative effect, I am willing to bet he beats someone 12 years his senior today, given his current form.
J.J. Spaun to beat Alex Smalley (10/11 Boylesports)
I am picking on Alex Smalley again, and opting to do so with J.J. Spaun, who beat Aaron Rai yesterday to make it two from two for our two-ball selections, after Ryan Fox beat Smalley.
Spaun has hit the ball really well this week, ranking 4th for SG Approach, 16th for SG Off the Tee, and 10th overall for SG Tee to Green. Smalley, on the other hand, ranks 53rd in SG Approach, and while he has been decent enough off the tee (17th), Spaun has been better, and I expect that to continue.
Smalley ranked 60th in Approach and 66th in Putting yesterday among the 74 players to make the cut, and that’s a terrible combination as he desperately hopes to cling on to a top 25 finish here after a strong start.
It’s Spaun who I trust here, though, as it looks far more likely that he can put in a good iron round today after ranking inside the top six in that category in each of the first two rounds, while Smalley’s been outside the top 50 in approach every day. You can’t keep faking it around here as Smalley has done so far.
Marco Penge to beat Beau Hossler (11/10 General)
Marco Penge has hit the ball brilliantly this week, ranking 4th in SG Off the Tee and 3rd in SG Tee to Green overall. He currently ranks 33rd in SG Approach, but he had his best iron day yesterday, despite posting his worst score of the week due to a dismal short game.
Since back-to-back top 15 finishes at the start of the PGA Tour season, Hossler has been terrible, finishing no better than T32, missing four cuts in 11 and ending the week T60 or worse on four more occasions.
Hossler ranks 2nd in SG Around the Green and 33rd in SG Putting this week, and in these 2-ball bets it’s always worth looking at a player who is being propped up by their short game. That’s certainly the case with the American.
This is as much a case of taking on Hossler, who ranks 66th in SG Approach and 68th in SG Off the Tee this week, as it is backing Penge, who is enjoying his first major appearance in America after his breakthrough win on the DP World Tour last month.
Back the Olesen, Spaun, Hossler treble at 5.23/1 at William Hill
Richard Bland to beat Sam Stevens (11/8 Bet365, William Hill)
After backing a couple of shorter-priced favourites, I am looking for some value in the final round as well, and I think Richard Bland can offer it.
While I don’t think Bland is going to pull up any trees today, his iron play, which sees him rank 16th in the field, could see him beat Sam Stevens over 18 holes.
Stevens ranks 8th in SG Putting and 9th in SG Around the Green this week, and that’s the only reason he’s made it as far as he has, because the rest of his game has been a shambles. Stevens ranks 73rd in SG Approach, tied with Max Homa for the worst of anyone making the cut, and he also ranks 59th in SG Off the Tee, which is generally a strength of his at his best.
Only four players hit the ball worse than Stevens tee-to-green yesterday, and if there is any drop off in his short game, which, considering he ranked 50th in SG Putting and 37th in SG Around the Green in Round One, there might be – he could be in for a big score today.
Bland doesn’t have the firepower to go that low round here, but he might not need to, as anything around level-par might be good enough to win this two-ball.
Back the Olesen, Spaun, Penge, and Bland four-fold at 13.82/1 at William Hill
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PGA Championship final round betting tips on Sunday at Quail Hollow
